Flash Flood in Georgia, July 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
256 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WET PATTERN REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
IN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD...TO OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING GOOD GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVED THROUGH THE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ALSO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...CHANCE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN LIKELY AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. LIKEWISE HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TOWARD COOLER MAV
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS EXPECT A REPEAT OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...
MOIST PATTERN REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
BRING A RETURN OF MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         69  85  69  85 /  50  60  40  40
ATHENS          69  84  70  84 /  50  60  40  40
GAINESVILLE     67  82  69  81 /  50  60  40  40
ROME            70  87  71  87 /  50  40  40  40
COLUMBUS        73  89  72  91 /  50  60  40  40
MACON           72  88  72  90 /  50  60  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL RIDE OVER THE COLD FRONT AND
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
NUMEROUS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. STABILITY INDICES WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK ALONG
WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AT LEAST 20000 FEET. THEREFORE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WEAK
FLOW ALOFT...THE MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW.
THEREFORE HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

GAZ072-302015-

352 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN IN JONES COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS JONES COUNTY.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CLINTON...GRAY...
WAYSIDE AND ARKWRIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND RISING WATER ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 TO 40 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.