Flash Flood in California, January 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST MON JAN 10 2005

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY ALONG
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. AFTER
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL FINALLY RETURN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

SHOWERS WERE OVER MOST AREAS FROM EXTREME NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
THROUGH ORANGE...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LOCAL RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1/2 INCH PER HOUR
WERE REPORTED...THOUGH MOST AREAS SAW 1/10 INCH PER HOUR OR LESS.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME...WITH LOCAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
MUD/ROCK SLIDES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DUE TO THE NEXT WAVE. A BAND OF SOLID HIGHER
RHS AT 850 AND 700 MB EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF MILES OUT INTO THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 30+ KNOT
WINDS AT 850 MB FROM THE SW. AND...ADD TO THE MIXTURE A 140-KNOT JET
STREAM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...SO THAT WE WILL BE IN THE
DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT. SO...THAT WILL BRING 1 TO
LOCALLY 3 INCH PRECIP TOTALS NEAR THE COAST WITH LOCAL 4 TO 6 INCH
TOTALS ON OROGRAPHIC SLOPES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTH.

COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TOO AS WE WILL FINALLY ENTER A
PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME STRONG
WINDS...AND THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ELEVATED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL FROM
6500 FEET VERY EARLY MONDAY TO 5000 FEET BY LATE MORNING AND
PROBABLY 4500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MEAN
A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF TSTORMS...WHICH WILL BRING SOME
DOWNPOURS...THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE A THREAT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS ANYTIME TUESDAY.

THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL BRING WEATHER SEEMINGLY ONLY KNOWN IN OUR DISTANT
MEMORIES...FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER. ONE CAVEAT...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...IN THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS EACH
MORNING. HOWEVER...THAT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
HIGHER THAN MOS PREDICTS SINCE THE GROUND DOES NOT GET MUCH WETTER
THAN IT IS NOW.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY...SEE LAXWSWSGX.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS 9 AM
TUESDAY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY...SEE LAXWSWSGX.

WIND ADVISORY IN THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS AND IN THE SAN
BERNARINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS BELOW THE SNOW LEVEL AND
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAN LUIS REY RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY...SEE
LAXFLSSGX.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS...SEE LAXFFASGX.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR TIDAL OVERFLOW...SEE LAXMWSSGX.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...SEE LAXHWOSGX.

&&

MAXWELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PST MON JAN 10 2005

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-121400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
800 PM PST MON JAN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

STRONG MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH HEAVIEST
MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. LOCAL STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AT TIMES TODAY. HIGH TIDES AND LARGE SURF WILL BRING A THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
DAYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

DUE TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN...THE FOLLOWING HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS
ARE OCCURRING...

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SEE LAXWSWSGX.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 PM
TODAY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SEE
LAXFFASGX.

RIVER STATEMENT FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND SAN LUIS REY RIVERS...SEE
LAXRVSSGX.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND SAN LUIS REY RIVERS...SEE
LAXFLSSGX.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXMWSSGX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY..

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR TIDAL OVERFLOW...SEE
LAXMWSSGX.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

ATKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
947 PM PST MON JAN 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE CRESTLINE         34.24N 117.26W
01/10/2005                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE BOULDERS IN BOTH LANES ON LAKE GREGORY DR JUST EAST
            OF HORST DR.

0839 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MORENO VALLEY           33.93N 117.21W
01/10/2005                   RIVERSIDE          CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WESTBOUND SR60 AT MILE MARKER 21 COVERED WITH ROCKS AND
            MUD

0901 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SE RUNNING SPRINGS    34.12N 117.00W
01/10/2005                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROCKS THE SIZE OF BATHTUB ON SR38 JUST SOUTH OF SUGAR
            PINES CIRCLE

0916 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W BIG BEAR CITY       34.27N 116.95W
01/10/2005                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BOULDER IN MIDDLE OF NORTH SHORE DR JUST EAST OF SR18

&&

BND