Strong Wind in California, December 1 to 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PST THU DEC 1 2005

.UPDATE...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...THE EAST PACIFIC
STORM IS ON TRACK...HAVING BROUGHT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN
TO MERCED COUNTY SO FAR...AND MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS KINGS
AND TULARE COUNTIES. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ON
THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...
DOWN THE ENTIRE RANGE FROM YOSEMITE TO THE PIUTES IN KERN COUNTY...
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS OVER MARIPOSA AND MADERA
COUNTIES WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED.

THE LATEST HANFORD DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE RAIN SHADOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FILLING IN AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
AIRMASS MOISTEN...AND EXPECT RAIN TO REACH BAKERSFIELD BY 06Z.

THE GOES WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP...WITH THE FETCH CURRENTLY BRINGING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA RAIN AND
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW SHOWING A TRAILING EDGE NEAR 33N/135W. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACK OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 30N/154W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE A TEMPORARY DIMINISHMENT IN THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...OR EVEN A
BREAK... BEFORE THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVES. IN FACT...THE 18Z
GFS HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY THAT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...THE NEXT MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH MAY DIVE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH DRY MID-LEVEL /700-500-MB AND
850-700-MB/ AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS
SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH IT KEEPS A HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY...WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GIVING MUCH HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON POPS
FOR BAKERSFIELD THAN FOR HANFORD NORTHWARD.

THE LATEST /03-04Z/ TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM AUTOMATED MOUNTAIN
SENSORS INDICATES THAT THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
IS STILL AROUND 7500-8000 FEET. 700-MB TEMPERATURES OVER YOSEMITE
INITIALIZED BETWEEN -1 AND -2 C ON ALL THREE SHORT-RANGE MODELS...
GFS/NGM/NAM...AND WERE FORECAST TO FALL TO -3 TO -4 C BY 12Z FRIDAY
AND -4 TO -6 C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SNOW LEVELS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND
7500 FEET TONIGHT...LOWERING TO 5500-6000 FEET FRIDAY.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...KHNX 88D
INDICATING OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO TULARE COUNTY.
MEANWHILE LIGHT RAINFALL HAS BEGUN OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AS THE DRY SLOT THAT INHIBITED RAINFALL OVER THE VALLEY
EARLIER THIS MORNING IS FILLING IN. MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS WV LOOP
IS PICKING UP ON A STRONG UPPER JET MAXIMA NEAR 130W. THE 12Z MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE
FAVORED LFQ OF THIS STRONG JET MAX TONIGHT...THEN THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OR CWFA WHICH WILL BE IN THE RRQ
FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE POPULATED THE POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY...WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FAVORED AREAS.

THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING AS SNOW ABOVE 8500 FEET BUT WITH
CAA ANTICIPATE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO 7000 TO 7500 FEET TONIGHT AND
TO 6000 TO 6500 FEET ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED OVER
THE HIGHER SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. WITH MODERATE RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUED AN ADVISORY SINCE ANY FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED. MESOWEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
OVER THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY. SINCE THE STRONGER WINDS HAVE BEEN
RATHER LOCALIZED WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY AS THE JET MAX MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ONE OTHER CONCERN HAS
BEEN THAT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
PRECIPITATION OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ZERO CAPE AND LI/S BETWEEN 4 AND 8 ACROSS THE
VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE UNFAVORABLE OVER OUR
AREA ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO
OCCURS THIS EVENING.

FOLLOWING THE GFS TIMING WHICH IS PREFERRED SINCE IT HAS A BETTER
HANDLING OF THE MAIN OFFSHORE S/W...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER
TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL
BAND MOVES THROUGH...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
END OF THE VALLEY AS WELL AS OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY DECEMBER AS PER MAV
GUIDANCE. PROGS INDICATING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
CENTRAL ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. THIS RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INLAND ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK IN THE COOLER SPOTS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
HOWEVER...WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TONIGHT/S RAINFALL
AROUND...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. CONSENSUS IS HIGH AMONG THE MODELS SO WILL
TREND TOWARD GENERAL CLEARING AND DRYING OF THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PARTS OF THE LONG TERM. WITH THIS CLEARING WILL COME AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY MENTIONING
AREAS OF FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SEEM REASONABLE AS
MODELS ARE SHOWING A MOIST LOW LEVEL AND DRY MID LEVEL...ALONG WITH
700 MB HEIGHTS AT NEAR 3140 METERS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
WILL BE THAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AND THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG.
DURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...MODELS ATTEMPT THE WEAKEN THE RIDGE
PATTERN CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY AS AN IMPULSE PUSHING INTO THE REGION
VIA A INSIDE SLIDER TRAJECTORY. TYPICALLY...INSIDE SLIDERS OFFER
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST GOING INTO
THURSDAY. YET...WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER TOWARD THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAK IMPULSE. FURTHERMORE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EARLY PARTS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE WARMING BEFORE THE INTRODUCTION
OF CLOUDS AND THE INSIDE SLIDER. BY WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLING
TREND STARTING BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE KERN DESERTS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AFTER 02Z (6 PM). AFTERWARD...PRECIP WILL ALSO INVADE THE DESERT
REGIONS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR
KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 7500
      FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KERN COUNTY
      THROUGH 900 AM FRIDAY.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

SANGER/DS/MOLINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
430 AM PST THU DEC 1 2005

CAZ096-097-021300-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
430 AM PST THU DEC 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 9 AM
PST FRIDAY MORNING.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE /WWUS46 KHNX...SFOWSWHNX/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ089>095-098-099-021300-
EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
430 AM PST THU DEC 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AND THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

MYERS