Damaging Winds in Arkansas, November 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY
BREAKING UP. AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE. CURRENT THINKING IS DUE TO THE STRONG
CAP...STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ONCE THEY GET
GOING...WILL MAINLY BE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WENT WITH CHANCE
CHANCE POPS IN NORTH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
CONCERN WITH SEVERE STORMS IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT ONLY
BY 5 DEGREES SO NOT A DRASTIC CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK TO
THE STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

KEPT POPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
STATE...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DECIDED NOT TO STRAY VERY FAR FROM GOING FCST TRENDS. 12Z GFS HAS
DONE AN ABOUT FACE IN REGARDS TO THE NEXT FNTL BNDRY AT MIDWEEK AND
NOW HANGS THE FNTL BNDRY ACRS THE FA. SEVERAL UPPER WVS ARE FCST TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN STATES LOW...RESULTING IN A LONGER PD OF
UNSETTLED WX.

CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...
INDCG A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE FNT LATER NEXT WEEK.
THUS...HAVE GONE WITH SCTD POPS WED INTO EARLY THU WITH CDFNT
PUSHING THRU THE FA. HIGH PRES TO FOLLOW FROPA AND PREVAIL INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  57  75  54  79 /  30  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       49  70  52  78 /  30  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  76  55  80 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  76  55  80 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  50  69  51  77 /  30  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  78  56  81 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         56  73  52  78 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      55  76  55  81 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  74  54  79 /  30  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM....44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
545 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

ARZ030-031-014-033-012-013-037-038-053-056-057-054-055-015-016-
034-062-063-052-067-066-065-064-069-068-025-005-004-007-024-003-
041-040-043-042-045-044-047-046-022-021-032-023-006-039-061100-
LOGAN-CONWAY-STONE-WHITE-NEWTON-SEARCY-SCOTT-YELL-CLARK-JEFFERSON-
ARKANSAS-HOT SPRING-GRANT-IZARD-INDEPENDENCE-WOODRUFF-DALLAS-
CLEVELAND-PIKE-CALHOUN-OUACHITA-DESHA-LINCOLN-DREW-BRADLEY-
JACKSON-BAXTER-MARION-SHARP-CLEBURNE-BOONE-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SALINE-
GARLAND-LONOKE-PULASKI-MONROE-PRAIRIE-POPE-JOHNSON-FAULKNER-
VAN BUREN-FULTON-PERRY-
545 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS BORDER.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CLARKSVILLE TO RUSSELLVILLE TO NEWPORT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80
DEGREES BY MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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