Damaging Winds in Arkansas, May 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
225 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FIRST FNTL BNDRY NOTED ACRS SERN AR AT MID AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION HAS
FORMED DURG THE PAST HOUR ACRS SRN AR. ACTIVITY HAS DVLPD AHEAD OF
H85 BNDRY AND VCNTY OF UPPER LVL SHRTWV MOVG ACRS NRN LA. WL LEAVE
SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR EARLY THIS EVENING OVR SERN AR. EXPECT BULK
OF PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE FA ARND SUNSET. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
FNT...ASSOCD WITH MAIN PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WAS DROPPING SEWD ACRS
CNTRL MO AND ERN KS.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM. SECONDARY CDFNT WL PUSH SWD ACRS AR LATER TNGT AND EARLY
SUN. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND INCRSG NLY WINDS WITH FROPA. SFC HIGH WL
SETTLE OVR AR BEHIND FNT AND PERSIST THRU SUN NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPS AND DRIER AIR.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS EWD MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH SELY WIND FLOW
RETURNING TO THE FA. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
EWD ACRS THE AREA MON AFTN AND MON NIGHT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
STRONGER NAM SOLUTION AND THE WEAKER GFS FOR THIS TIME PD. PRIMARY
LIFT ASSOCD WITH THIS SYS WL AFFECT NRN COUNTIES. SIG MOISTURE WL BE
LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTD WITH LOW POPS FOR NRN COUNTIES.

WL CONT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCRS IN HUMIDITY AND TEMPS TUE AS SLY FLOW
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACRS THE MID SOUTH. A GRADUAL INCRS IN
UPPER HGTS IS ALSO INDCD BY THE MODELS...RESULTING IN LTL IF ANY
RAINFALL TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT TODAY...THOUGH STILL INDICATING NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT. BY THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OUT IN THE PLAINS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MODEL SOLNS BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST....WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN...POSSIBLY STALLING
INVOF WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. WITH NORTHWESTERLY 500
MB FLOW...SEVERAL WILL MOVE DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW AND INTERACT WITH
THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

BY LATE FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING FOR
THE STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONT TO HEAD SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST BEYOND THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM....57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
AND COLD FRONT MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED...BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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