Damaging Wind in Arkansas, May 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
935 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKING TO BE ON TRACK. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. ALL UPDATES GONE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED 240 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE OVR ERN AR THIS AFTN ASSOCD
WITH WEAK SFC TROF AND UPPER LVL SHEAR AXIS IN THE AREA. HAVE BEEN
WATCHING NEW CONVECTION FORM OVR ERN OK ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW BNDRY
LEFTOVER FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION.

MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FCST TRENDS DURG
THE SHORT TERM. ONE DIFFERENCE NOTED TODAY IS THE SLOWER SEWD
PROGRESSION OF THE CDFNT ACRS AR LATE TNGT AND SAT. BASED ON THESE
LATEST SOLUTIONS...FNT EXPECTED TO ENTER NWRN AR AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PUSH ACRS CNTRL AR ARND MIDDAY SAT AND OUT OF SERN AR BY 00Z SAT
EVENING.

LOOKING AT CONVECTION FORMING TO OUR W LATER THIS AFTN AS UPPER TROF
AXIS WORKS INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND CDFNT BEGINS SHIFTING SEWD. WL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH VARIOUS SMALL SCALE BNDRYS OVR THE PLAINS
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST
POPS OVR NWRN COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER POPS FURTHER
SEWD LATER TNGT AND INTO SAT ELSEWHERE. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STRONG OR SVR STORMS TNGT ACRS NWRN AR VCNTY OF CDFNT. HOWEVER...
NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT GOES N OF AR
AND BULK OF CONVECTION WL BE AFFECTING OUR FA DURG THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

CONTD WITH CHC POPS ON SAT...WITH A DECREASING TREND NOTED FROM NW
TO SE AS THE FNT PUSHES SEWD. EXPECT A GOOD TEMP RECOVERY MOST
LOCATIONS SAT AFTN BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT. MODELS STILL SHOWING
THE MAIN SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKING INTO AR SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

SFC HIGH PRES WL PREVAIL INTO MON. HIGH SHIFTS EWD LATER IN THE DAY
AND MON NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA. MODELS NOT AS STRONG WITH NEXT UPPER SYS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACRS THE MID-SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MON
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TO BE HONEST...LONG TERM PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BORING...WHICH COULD
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE DROUGHT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN. 500
MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BLOCKING ANY SURFACE SYSTEMS FROM MAKING HEADWAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND BY THURSDAY...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETROGRADING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF THE GULF AS A MOISTURE
SOURCE. DURING THIS TIME...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ALLOWING A SURFACE FRONT TO VENTURE DOWN INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...ONLY SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTED...AS DRY LOW LEVELS PERSIST AND LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE NOTED. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

CLIMATE...
FOR THE LAST MONTH...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS HAS HAD
AN INCREASING RAINFALL DEFICIT OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES. THOUGH SOME
RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL BE DRY. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
TO WORSEN. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT /PNSLZK/ ISSUED THIS MORNING.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
723 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
723 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON
INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE THAN DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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