Hail in Arkansas, March 24, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS MOST OF ARKANSAS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS.
AIR REMAINING RATHER STABLE THOUGH DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY RISING AND
SLOW DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OCCURRING. THE BEST WARM ADVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NORTHWESTEN EDGE OF THE CWA AT ISSUE TIME WILL SPREAD INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO POTENT IN THE LESS UNSTABLE
AIR. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME HAIL REACHING THE GROUND. MAY SEE
NEW DEVELOPMENT IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS LATER AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND LOOK FOR THIS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA SOMETIME TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH. THE STORMS SHOULD AGAIN WEAKEN
OR BECOME MORE ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO ARKANSAS BUT THE CHANCE OF
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL EXIST. BUMPED POPS TO 50
PERCENT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTH. LEFT MENTION OF HAIL OR SEVERE OUT OF THE ZONES BUT WILL
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO ABOUT IT. LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW ZIP PAST THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY SO WILL NOT CONTINUE
POPS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD DEVELOP. THE NEXT UPPER TROF
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO SET ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH MAXES REACHING INTO THE
70S IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE COOLER AIR WILL BE FELT BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
NEXT TROF MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALSO INCREASES AND THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS. INCREASED POPS
THROUGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS SHOULD INCREASE
SATURDAY AND HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING
CATEGORICAL IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS A LITTLE
LOWER IN THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL POSITION. A WAVE MOVES
ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF STEADY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
KEPT POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY THEN DECREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE STEADY RAIN IN NATURE BY SUNDAY.
WENT CLOSE TO MAV ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SFC AND H5 RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND PUSHES THE
SFC RIDGE EWD...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP...BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. AS H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE SW-NE
ORIENTED...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH...BRINGING SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY...AS COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SWEEP INTO ARKANSAS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  76  53  58 /  30  10  50  60
HARRISON AR       48  64  43  51 /  50  10  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  76  53  58 /  30  10  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     53  77  54  62 /  30  10  50  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  63  43  51 /  50  10  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     54  78  54  64 /  20  10  50  60
SEARCY AR         50  72  51  57 /  30  10  50  60
MOUNT IDA AR      52  75  53  58 /  30  10  50  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  71  50  56 /  40  10  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...29 / LONG TERM....57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
700 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251100-
INDEPENDENCE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-IZARD-NEWTON-SEARCY-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-
JEFFERSON-STONE-HOT SPRING-GRANT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-GARLAND-CLEVELAND-
DALLAS-CALHOUN-OUACHITA-DESHA-LINCOLN-LOGAN-BRADLEY-SALINE-BAXTER-
MARION-SHARP-FULTON-BOONE-MONTGOMERY-POLK-JACKSON-CLEBURNE-
VAN BUREN-POPE-PIKE-PULASKI-MONROE-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-DREW-ARKANSAS-
CLARK-JOHNSON-
700 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD. THERE WILL
BE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT STABLE CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF SEVERE STORMS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL
BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LOW
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF ARKANSAS...THE CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

A NEW STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS
STATES ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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