Hail in Arkansas, March 24 to 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
850 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPLACED...TEMPORARILY...BY A MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND
DECENT T/TD SPREADS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FORECAST LOWS. NEED TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS...ALTHOUGH TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT/INCREASING SELY/SLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE. COULD VERY WELL SEE STEADY
TEMPS OR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE LATER TONIGHT.

OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARD
SUNRISE. 00Z NAM DEVELOPS 50KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER CNTRL OK LATE
TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND -2C. BEST LOW-LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN OVER ERN/SERN KS...SO IM BETTING ON
CONVECTION REMAINING N OF THE KS BORDER THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL ADVISE
MID SHIFT AND LET THEM MONITOR.

WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 03Z TEMPS BEFORE UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED.

&&

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID = 18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE SOME...HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY...AND STALL SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE RED RIVER BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO BE
SEVERE. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER SHOULD THE FRONT STALL FARTHER NORTH...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.