Damaging Wind in Arkansas, June 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
935 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

.UPDATE...
HUGE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ACT
AS A BLOCK TO ANY FORWARD MOVING SURFACE SYSTEMS. CONDUCIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UPPER IMPULSES
THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS.

THAT BEING SAID...WE TURN TO THE PRESSING ISSUES OF THE FIRST AND
SECOND PERIODS. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS ALONG A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE. STORMS
HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG...AND INITIALLY DEVELOPED AS MOSTLY
DISCRETE CELLS...NOW EVOLVING INTO LINER SYSTEM. SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING...HOWEVER IT/S A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE AS
TO HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS WILL GET BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. AT THIS
POINT...AM THINKING THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN MAKE IT
INTO WESTERN/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BY THEN...STORMS
WILL HAVE WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVER THE EXTREME
WEST...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANYTHING LIKE OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALL THAT BEING SAID...HAVE DONE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING
TRENDS. ALSO...CLEANED UP SOME MINOR TEMPORAL WORDING IN THE TEXT
FORECASTS. FINALLY...HAVE REALIGNED POPS SOMEWHAT...STILL
CONFINING 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE IN ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

WITH OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS PRESENT...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND 90S ON SUNDAY...POTENTIAL WILL BE PRESENT FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNON HOURS.

TEXT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. GRAPHICAL...GRIDDED...AND
TABULAR PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005/...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ALL THE MAJOR SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH OF THE STATE TO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON OUR WEATHER. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL BE
THE WEATHER PRODUCERS...BUT THEY WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. POPS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE NIL AND 30 OR 20 PERCENT FOR
SUNDAY. POPS FOR MONDAY STILL IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPS HAVE
BEGUN THEIR RUN AT THE 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE INCHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRETTY MUCH OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. WITH
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RAISED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2 DEGREES OVER WHAT WE ALREADY HAD GOING.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
745 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
745 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS OF
7 PM. OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS WILL HEAD SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED BY
THEN...AND WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF WALDRON AND
YELLVILLE. IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FARTHER WEST
IN THE PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS ON
SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH LUCK. THE FRONT WILL RUN INTO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

EVEN SO...WITH THE FRONT NEARBY ON SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ABOUT THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. GIVEN THIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF LITTLE ROCK ON SUNDAY.

WITH THE FRONT NOT MOVING THROUGH...WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL RIDE THE FLOW TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

BECAUSE STORMS WILL DEVELOP RANDOMLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...
NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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