Hail in Arkansas, December 3 to 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1020 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
THE CWFA THROUGH 11Z. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED...POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPING STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED HAS HEIGHTENED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...CELLS OVER NORTHERN MS
HAVE FIRED AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY...WHILE CELLS OVER S ARK HAVE
FIRED ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE BNDRY. GIVEN SPEEDY EASTERLY MVMNT TO
THESE STORMS...IT IS DEFINATELY POSSIBLE THAT THESE CELLS WILL
BECOME SFC BASED. WITH RUC FORECAST 0-1KM SHEAR 35-40KTS TONIGHT...
THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES. HAVE INCREASED PROB HAZARDS AND WILL REISSUE HAZ WX
OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

ALL OTHER ITEMS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
FIRST A WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8PM. A FEW GUSTS TO
20MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MAIN ISSUE WERE CONTEMPLATING TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA. 00Z
KJAN SOUNDING (AND SOUNDINGS FROM SHV...LCH AND LIX FOR THAT MATTER)
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT 800MB. THIS CAP-A-SAURUS IS GIVING MUCH OF
THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION A
CALCULATED CIN AROUND -300 J/KG. AS A RESULT...WE WILL BE RELYING ON
FORCING...PROVIDED BY A SFC COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A SUBTLE
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

A LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS OF 330K WILL BE NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE
SFC FRONT TONIGHT. GIVEN OBSERVED LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM...500MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50-60KTS...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR. WITH RELIANCE UPON THE SFC FRONT FOR INITIATION...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
BEING LARGE HAIL. IF A COUPLE OF THE STORMS CAN GET ROOTED AT THE
SFC (I.E. GET AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT)...A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND MAYBE A TORNADO EXISTS. AGAIN...THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...WITH CONDITIONAL AND SECONDARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/A
TORNADO OR TWO. IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND FOCUS ON MY NORTHERN ZONES.

WILL KEEP FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME IN LIEU OF NEW DATA COMING
IN. ANOTHER UPDATE WILL LIKELY BE DONE BEFORE 10 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CONGEAL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY HUG THE 3K LEVEL AND SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 2K OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE DISCUSSED CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS THE MAIN CONUNDRUM FOR THE
00Z TAF PACKAGE. HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AT GWO AND GLH
AROUND THE 06Z TIME FRAME...WITH A MENTION OF TSRA IN JAN AND MEI
TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH -SHRA FOR TOMORROW AS
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR VIS CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  59  44  47 /  33  84 100  57
MERIDIAN      58  63  47  48 /  32  82 100  73
VICKSBURG     56  58  41  48 /  47  80 100  35
HATTIESBURG   62  72  54  54 /  14  58  90  79
NATCHEZ       61  61  44  48 /  16  75  90  40
GREENVILLE    50  52  37  49 /  90  62  77  12
GREENWOOD     50  53  38  47 /  90  78 100  31

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

CORRECTED TO REMOVE NON PRECIPITATION HAZARD

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
050338-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1040 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO MADISON AND
SHUQUALAK MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY MOVE INTO THE
ARKLAMISS TONIGHT AND INITIATE SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. STRONG
WIND SHEAR (OR THE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT)
EXISTS FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LARGE HAIL WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS THAT MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO MADISON AND
SHUQUALAK MISSISSIPPI HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE
BASED...POSING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

...FLOODING...
LOCAL DOWNPOURS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD COULD
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND WAIT FOR
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH IT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT.	THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY
STALLS. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
LOCATIONS HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE...MAINLY FROM THE STARKVILLE TO JACKSON TO VICKSBURG AREAS.

WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM...BUT THESE
PARAMETERS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MERIDIAN TO NATCHEZ
LINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM MOREHOUSE PARISH IN LOUISIANA...TO MADISON AND
NOXUBEE COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.