Flash Flood in Arkansas, August 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTYRAL AND NORTH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES COLD FRONT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE
AND SEEMS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO FIRE ALONG NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LYING ACROSS THE STATE.
BELIEVE THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY POPS ALL DAY ACROSS THE CWA.
LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A JUICY AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2.3
INCHES SO HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN.

HEAT ADVISORY LOOKING BORDERLINE RIGHT NOW WITH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION IN THE AREA OF CONCERN. ITS STILL POSSIBLE WITH HEATING
SOME AREAS MAY REACH CRITERIA SO WILL LEAVE IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT
RESERVING THE OPTION OF DROPPING IT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY TO WORRY ABOUT HEAT AS ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO HURRICANE KATRINA. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD KEEP THE MAIN
IMPACT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH JUST SOME SHOWERS TO THE EAST
OF THE METRO AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. WILL WAIT FOR THE COMPLETE
SUITE OF MODELS BEFORE CHANGING ANYTHING BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BUT
COVERAGE HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY EARLY MORNING THEN REDEVLOP AROUND MIDDAY
FROM EFFECTS OF HEATING. THESE FACTORS WILL BE CRITICAL IN
DETERMINING HOW HIGH TEMPS WILL GET TODAY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AT FORECAST TIME...HAVE PRETTY GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA WILL
GET TO HEAT UP WELL THIS MORNING AND IS LIKELY TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
FOR NOW. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS AND THE LITTLE
ROCK METRO AREA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY. SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY
REACH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THESE AREAS. WENT WITH MAX NEAR
95 FOR KLIT AND THE HEAT INDEX MAXES OUT AT 104 SO WILL LEAVE THE
LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. WILL INCLUDE
HOT SPRINGS HOWEVER. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...MAY NEED TO REVISE THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. PRETTY MUCH LEFT POPS AS THEY WERE WITH 40 TO 50 POPS IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING AND THESE HIGHER POPS
SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POPS DECREASING TO THE NORTH. BY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY JUST HAVE
SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTH. NOT MUCH COOLING AND DRYING BEING INDICATED
NOW BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT MORE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR AWHILE. HURRICANE KATRINA HAS BEEN SHOWING NO SIGNS
OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IT IN FARTHER TO
THE WEST. KATRINA MAY NOW COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME EFFECT ON
THE CWA BUT IT STILL LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT IT WILL BE TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA ON THE WEAKER AND SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE STORM. THE GFS
INCREASES MOISTURE INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND GFS MOS
INDICATES STRONG WINDS AND HIGH POPS STARTING MONDAY. THE SAME THING
HAPPENED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS EARLY LAST MONTH AND THE GFS GROSSLY
OVERFORECAST POPS AND WINDS FOR THIS CWA. DUE TO THIS...DECIDED TO
HEDGE THE FORECAST A LITTLE FOR THE EFFECTS OF KATRINA BUT ONLY WENT
WITH 20 TO 30 POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE
IN NORTHEAST WINDS. PUT THE HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY
AND THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE REVISED A FEW
TIMES AS THE PATH OF KATRINA BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF KATRINA. AT THIS
TIME...WILL KEEP POPS OUT AS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  74  94  72 /  40  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       88  68  91  66 /  40  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    97  74  96  72 /  40  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     96  75  94  73 /  40  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  68  91  66 /  40  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     97  75  94  73 /  40  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         94  74  93  71 /  50  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      96  73  96  72 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  72  94  70 /  50  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ042-ARZ052-ARZ053-
ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-
ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
838 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DE VALLS BLUFF          34.79N 91.46W
08/27/2005                   PRAIRIE            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1032 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMP                    36.42N 91.73W
08/27/2005                   FULTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN IN CAMP

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KELSO                   33.80N 91.27W
08/27/2005                   DESHA              AR   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN.

1010 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N KELSO               33.86N 91.27W
08/27/2005                   DESHA              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN 2 MILES SOUTH OF WATSON.

&&

INIGUEZ