Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATED A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH ARIZONA AND NEVADA...AND THIS IS
LARGELY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY. MAIN THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESP OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 10 PM PDT. MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA UNDER A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...MID LEVEL HIGH MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST AND INTO THE PACNW. HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE WEST...WHICH WILL SHOULD SUPPRESS MOISTURE PLUME FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO AND BRING A LITTLE MORE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY TO THE
REGION. ONLY LARGE SCALE FEATURE TO WATCH...LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM
HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. GFS MAY ALSO BE HINTING
AT THIS FEATURE WITH THE 18Z RUN. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WORK ITS WAY UP AROUND THE HIGH...THEN
TAPER TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES MORE OVERHEAD.

.AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL EXPECTED WEATHER AT KLAS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TRAFFIC CORRIDORS AND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NVZ016>022 UNTIL 10 PM.
.AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ001>003-036 UNTIL 10 PM.
.CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CAZ029 UNTIL 10 PM.
&&

DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1126 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ026>029-NVZ014>022-301400-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK CA-ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY NV-
LAKE HAVASU AND FORT MOHAVE AZ-LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA AZ-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA NV-LAS VEGAS VALLEY NV-
LINCOLN COUNTY NV-NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY NV-NORTHWEST DESERTS AZ-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AZ-
OWENS VALLEY AND ADJACENT EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES CA-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS CA-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-SHEEP RANGE NV-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY NV-SPRING MOUNTAINS-RED ROCK CANYON NV-
WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY NV-
1126 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.TODAY...FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CLARK COUNTY NV AND MOHAVE
COUNTY AZ UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM-INDUCED WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

RUNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
754 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     ECHO BAY                36.32N 114.41W
07/29/2005  62 MPH           CLARK              NV   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

BFUIS