Avalanche in Arizona, February 10, 2005

Name: Avalanche in Arizona, February 10, 2005
Start: 2005-02-10T03:00
End: 2005-02-10T03:00
Location: Arizona

February 10, 2005 · NWS FGZ · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 avalanche, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 9, 9:15 PM MST, 5 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 9, 9:15 PM MST, 5 hours 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
915 PM MST WED FEB 09 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THURSDAY. AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LOOK FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
EARLY FRIDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
THEN END ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
STATE THIS EVENING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AS UPPER LOW SPINS OFF
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA. THE LOW EJECTS TO THE NE LATE TOMORROW...
MOVING INTO AZ BY SATURDAY. MODELS PROG A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TAP.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING AT PCPN AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS...WITH THIS STORM. HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SINCE THERE ARE MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS AND NAM. ITS A GOOD BET THAT THE AREAS SOUTH
OF THE RIM WILL BE THE HARDEST HIT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
STATE WITH ONLY WEAK DYNAMICS AS SHOWN BY DIV-Q FIELDS. OROGRAPHICS
WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE AND LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STABLE. ALL OF
THESE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...
TROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DEEP SATURATED LAYER WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE TO GENERATE LONG LASTING PERIODS OF PCPN OVER THE
NORTHLAND. DEEP TROPICAL FETCH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM AIR MASS
AND VERY HIGH SNOW LEVELS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN....WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST MTN LOCATIONS
ABOVE 8000 FEET GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO
ADJUST FIRST PERIOD CLOUD COVER. DF

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 9, 7:10 AM MST, 19 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
710 AM MST WED FEB 9 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-101400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
710 AM MST WED FEB 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES BY LATE
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE 8500
FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THIS STORM. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

BECAUSE OF MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS COCONINO...YAVAPAI...
NORTHERN GILA...AND PORTIONS OF NAVAJO COUNTIES...RUNOFF FROM
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS ON WASHES AND STREAMS.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.

Avalanche, Western Mogollon Rim

When: February 10, 3:00 AM MST
Where: Western Mogollon Rim forecast zone
Reported by: PARK/FOREST SERVICE
Coordinates: 35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A massive avalanche knocked down thousands of trees in Abineau Canyon and wiped out a 3/4 mile section of the Abineau Trail. The rare Arizona avalanche buried the trail under tons of trees, boulders and debris. Abineau Canyon is on the north side of the San Francisco Peaks within the Kachina Peaks Wilderness Area about 10 miles north of Flagstaff. The head of the canyon is over 12,000 feet above sea level and the toe of the avalanche was around 9,500 feet. Arizona Snowbowl, only 3 miles away, reported their second highest seasonal snowfall of 460 inches by the end of April.

What these are

Avalanche: A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2005 Every state in 2005 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, February 2005

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5468168.