Hail in Arizona, August 2, 2005

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-030600-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT MOST PLACES EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM
CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN
ARIZONA COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...WHILE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS AN
IMPROVED CHANCE...MOST NOTABLY TONIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY...EXCEPT IN LOCALES WHICH
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL ON TRACK. 18Z
SOUNDINGS AT PSR AND 1Y7 HAVENT CHANGED MUCH EXCEPT FOR SURFACE
HEATING EFFECTS...ALTHOUGH WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE CHANGED TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE MID LEVELS. STRONG STORMS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
ON SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR GLOBE. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF DAYLIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THOUGH...WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA ARE RATHER QUIET. GETTING A LOOK AT THE 18Z ETA-NAM IT IS
SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOWS DECREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY OVER THE COLORADO
PLATEAU WEDNESDAY. FORECASTS REFLECT BETTER CHANCES TONIGHT THAN ON
OTHER DAYS THIS WEEK DUE TO THE FIREST PERIOD POTENTIAL AND LACK OF
OBVIOUS SIGNALS INDICATING THE SAME FOR THE OTHER DAYS.
HOWEVER...GFS IS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD NORTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AT LEAST OVER ARIZONA PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS PANS OUT AND WE ARE ABLE TO GET HEALTHY STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS....WE COULD HAVE AN INTERESTING WEEKEND. BUT
THAT IS SPECULATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. TAFS FOR KPHX...KIWA...KYUM...KIPL...AND
KBLH ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

17

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
540 AM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

AZZ020>023-025>028-CAZ031>033-030700-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
540 AM PDT TUE AUG 2 2005 /540 AM MST TUE AUG 2 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NOT TO INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...ALONG WITH
DENSE BLOWING DUST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY
DAY...WITH FLASH FLOODING AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AZZ024-030700-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS-
540 AM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY DAY...WITH FLASH
FLOODING AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CAZ030-030700-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
540 AM PDT TUE AUG 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY DAY...WITH FLASH
FLOODING AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ESTLE