Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, March 20 to 22, 2005

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM AST SUN MAR 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WIND EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR IS UNFOLDING PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED.
ONE CAVEAT IS THAT IT APPEARS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850 MB WINDS
WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED INTO ZONE 217 WHERE
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS ADJUSTMENT IS NECESSARY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN MODELS HAD WANTED TO PLACE THEM DISPLACING THE HIGHEST
WINDS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH. IT ALSO IS APPEARING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT OUR WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY FOR SOME ZONES. WE WILL DEFER TO
THE DAY SHIFT TO ANALYZE THIS POSSIBILITY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION LATER TODAY. SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN VALLEYS WHICH
FUNNEL A NORTHEAST WIND AND OVER THE HILLS IN ZONES 216 AND 217.
THE NORTH SLOPE WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WHERE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR FACTOR.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A TROUGH
CURRENTLY ABOUT TO CROSS THE BORDER FROM THE YUKON INTO THE STATE
MOVES SOUTHWEST TO NEAR ANCHORAGE BY LATER TODAY. THE COLD POOL
ALOFT WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
MODERATING AS THE TROUGH RELOCATES INTO THE BERING SEA...GIVING
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. UNTIL THAT
HAPPENS EXPECT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY FLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ZONES 220 AND 224
AS WELL BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED HERE.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. MOST MODELS HAVE COME INTO
A BASIC AGREEMENT ON REDEVELOPING A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA EXTENDING IT NORTHWEST INTO THE STATE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. BASED ON THE WAY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WINTER SEASON HAS TURNED OUT...THIS APPEARS LIKE A FAIRLY
TRUSTWORTHY SOLUTION.  THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE AREAS
BEING A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. A FEW STORMS MY GRAZE THE WEST
COAST LATER IN THE WEEK BUT NO MAJOR SYSTEMS APPEAR ON THE
HORIZON.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING...225>226
         HIGH WIND WARNING...216>222...224
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY...218...220...224
MARINE...BRISK WIND ADVISORY...9A/B

ABE MAR 05