High Wind in Alaska, January 21, 2005

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU JAN 20 2005

.SHORT RANGE...WEATHER CALMING DOWN FINALLY WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE LAST STORM FADING WAY. THE WARM SOUTHERLY PUSH ALOFT
CONTINUING WITH ARCTIC AIR HOLDING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AND INTERIOR PASSES. POCKETS OF SNOW AND OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT
SHOULD TAPER OFF. A WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT IN THE NORTH WILL
LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AS A LOW MOVE NORTH TO
THE WESTERN GULF SPREADING ITS FRONT NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY AND TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH A MIX STARTING ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE AREA. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNEL IT SHOULD START AS SNOW.

EXPECT WINDS INTO INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT
THUS WILL TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT THE THOUGHT OF GALES FOR THE
COASTAL MARINES AND THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

.LONG RANGE...A VERTICALLY STACKED 970 MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 150W FRI NIGHT...TO BE WEST OF
KODIAK ISLAND BY SAT MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND TRACK SLOWLY INLAND OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUN OR SUN
NIGHT. BY FRI EVENING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE
LIFTED NORTH TO COVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST. AT
THIS POINT SEA LEVEL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING AS RAIN IN
MOST AREAS. NEAR JUNEAU SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1500
FEET.

HAINES AND SKAGWAY AS WELL AS THE TAKU RIVER VALLEY WILL BE
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN. ALTHOUGH THE ARCTIC
HIGH WILL BE LONG GONE AT THIS POINT THERE WILL STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR LEFT IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BE IN ENHANCED PROVIDING NO MECHANISM TO MIX OUT THE ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR. THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR A BIG OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT BEGINNING FRI EVENING FOR
HAINES AND SKAGWAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN 8 AND 12
INCHES FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE MIXING OVER TO
RAIN SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE NEXT WAVE FORMING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS STILL FORECAST TO
TRACK UP INTO QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND SUN EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA MON. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE
THINGS WILL DRY OUT FOR A DAY OR TWO. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO BRING THE ARCTIC HIGH WITH SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW BACK TO NORTHWEST CANADA SOMETIME MID OR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY AKZ019
      ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AKZ020-021-022-025
      ...FREEZING PRECIP ADVISORY AKZ026
      ...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT 018-022-023-027
MARINE...SMCR ALL AREAS...SOME GALES DEVELOPING OUTER COAST

BMB - JER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  JUNEAU AK
100 AM AST FRI JAN 21 2005

AKZ019-020-021-022-024-025-211500-
100 AM AST FRI JAN 21 2005

...POTENTIAL HAZARD FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN FRI NIGHT
    FOLLOWING HEAVY SNOWS OVER NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA...

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
NORTHWARD OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TO SOME AREAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  IN THE ELFIN
COVE...ANGOON...HOONAH...JUNEAU...GUSTAVUS...AND SOUTHERN
HAINES AREAS THE PRECIPITATION STARTING AS SNOW OR A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
THIS COULD BE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TO PROPERTY THAT IS ALREADY
HEAVILY LADEN WITH THE SNOWFALL OF THE LAST THREE DAYS...SINCE
RAINFALL INTO THE EXISTING SNOWPACK WILL MAKE THE SNOW LOAD
MUCH HEAVIER.

ANY PROPERTY COVERED IN SNOW THAT IS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND A LOT
OF EXTRA WEIGHT SUCH AS ROOF TOPS...BOATS...AIRCRAFT...SPECIAL
TREES AND PLANTS...SHOULD BE CLEANED OF SNOW BEFORE THE SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN OCCURS.

#DED JAN 05