High Wind in Alaska, January 1 to 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT JAN 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...UPPER LEVEL PICTURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
AN OMEGA BLOCK IS SETTING-UP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH THE AXIS
OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE AK-YUKON
TERRITORY BORDER.  THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AND
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 36N 167W. THE
REMAINING TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TONIGHT. ANOTHER MAJOR TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE SAME ROUTE
THROUGH TUESDAY - FLATTENING THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF.
THIS SET-UP WILL EQUATE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALASKA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ESSENTIALLY THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO PROGRESS EAST
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH A
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.  THIS
WILL BRING A DRIER COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR MAINLAND ZONES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY PROGRESSING
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DIAGONAL FROM
30N TO 70N. IF THIS FORMATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS IT WILL MEAN
ONE OF TWO LIKELY SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND OUR MAINLAND WEST
COAST ZONES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  EITHER MILD DRY WEATHER... OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF FOG... BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

...AT THE SURFACE FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA EAST...
A WEAKENING TROUGH IS ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST...WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. A FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING AND PROGRESS EAST
SPREADING MORE SNOW INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY WITH RAIN IN
BRISTOL BAY... KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA BY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES THIS
EVENING... AND THEN INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL PASS OUT OF OUR PUBLIC ZONES TOMORROW...AS YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
BERING SEA LOW. THE ALASKA WAVE MODEL SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT OCEAN
SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW. WE WILL BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE K-DELTA ZONE LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT FRONT COULD BRING UNSEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY...IF THE GFS SOLUTIONS
CORRECT.  OUR CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS THE ETA SOLUTION
WHICH HOLDS BACK ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

...AT THE SURFACE FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEST...
OUR MAJOR LOW IN TH WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAS SPLIT INTO TWO
CENTERS...BOTH ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST TODAY. SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW IS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TODAY.  THE BIG STORY IS THE APPROACHING LOW WITH A PROJECTED SURFACE
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 960 THIS MORNING.  THIS LARGE LOW WILL FURTHER
DEEPEN TO ABOUT 945/950 BY AFTERNOON AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES TOWARD
SHEMYA. DANGEROUS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LOW TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF
ANADYR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GALES AND STORM FORCE WESTERLIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLIES SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BERING SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...13B
         STORM WARNING...12B 13A 14
         GALE WARNING...3A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 12A1 15
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMF JAN 05