Flooding in Pennsylvania, January 1 to 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
1115 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2005

.SHORT TERM (UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON)...
CLOUDINESS MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ON
THE RISE WITH THE SUNSHINE. SO WILL GO WITH BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
EXCEPT FOR THE TOLEDO...FINDLAY AREAS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE REACHED
THE THAT AREA. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LOOKS LIKE AROUND 6 TO 7PM FINDLAY...TO MARION LINE. WILL ALSO ADJUST
THE WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU SUN)...
AS THE NEW YEAR RACES WEST...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR IS BEGINNING TO
SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  I AM
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST AND NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE
TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF THE LOW STRATUS SLIPPING SLOWLY
SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
NORTHWEST. THICKENING CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SO I FEEL WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY CLEAR TODAY AND BE FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN OHIO.  THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTH
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AND BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HPC THINKING THAT GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
SOLUTION FOR THE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
RESULT OF A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA.

WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AND GO LIKELY POPS FOR THE
WESTERN HALF. THEN...FLIP THE POPS AROUND AND GO LIKELY EAST HALF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CHANCE WEST HALF WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THE
CHANCE OF RAIN COULD BE FREEZING RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ERIE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES TONIGHT AS COLD AIR HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
FILTER INTO THAT AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AND DEW POINTS TO THE UPPER 20S.  THEN AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE AREA.  THIS TO WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FORCING THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MON THRU FRI)...
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THRU THU ACROSS THE OH VLY. LOOKS LIKE
A WARM FRONT MAY TRY TO BECOME STNRY ACROSS THE REGION MON-THU. THIS
MAY CAUSE A DECENT AMT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE
EXTENDED. IN FACT...THE 12Z GFS HAS 1.5-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE
48 HOURS ENDING 12Z WED. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD RIGHT THRU
THURSDAY IF THE GFS VERIFIES. DGEX HAS THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE
N...BUT THE OTHER MED RANGE MODEL SOLN DO NOT AGREE. GFS HAS A COOL
FRONT MOVING THRU THU...BUT TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE ARE STILL NOT
THAT COLD. OVERALL...A WARM AND WET FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FCST MON WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. WARM FRONT
BUILDS BACK N TUE WITH THE GFS SHOWING IT BECMG STNRY OVER OH TUE
AND WED. HIGHEST POPS TUE/WED. TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL MON-WED...THEN
COOL BACK TO NORMAL BY FRI AS THE COLD FNT MOVES THRU.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
CDFNT MOVG INTO NW OH AND AMS WILL TRY TO DRY OUT. CDFNT WL MOV E OF
CWA BY 12Z. FOG MAY OCCUR UNTIL THE LOWER DEWPOINTS GET IN. FOR THE
MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AFT FROPA. THE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFT 02Z.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

&&
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON/LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KIELTYKA