High Wind in Alaska, April 5, 2005

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT MON APR 4 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...NO CHANGE TO THE WIND WATCHES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
FOR TUE AT THIS TIME...PLEASE SEE TABLE BELOW.  A MAJOR CHANGE IN

WAVE TRACKS IS TAKING PLACE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING LOWS OF THE

LAST SEVERAL DAYS ENDING TODAY.  THE REST OF THIS SHORT RANGE
SECTION IS IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER...SO THE NEXT PARAGRAPH ONLY
DESCRIBES HOW THE OLD FAMILY OF LOW TRACKS ENDS.

992 MB LOW 120 NM SE OF YAKUTAT HAS TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH A
SITKA TO KETCHIKAN LINE...BUT THE LOW AND THE TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY.  A LARGE SCALE RIDGE ALOFT...PRODUCED BY THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH...IS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN TODAY AND WILL PUT THE LID ON THE
REMAINING SHOWERS. 00Z THE 500 MB RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER A
KETCHIKAN TO SITKA LINE AND TO 100 NM S OF CORDOVA.

THE PRIMARY LOW AT 00Z TUE WILL BE AT 975 MB 600 NM SW OF
KETCHIKAN WITH A TRIPLE POINT SWINGING TO WITHIN 400 NM W OF
KETCHIKAN...AND SENDING A STRONG MARITIME OVERRUN FROM THE SOUTH
OVER THE PANHANDLE.  THE PRECIP DELAY IN THE ZONES STILL LOOKS
RIGHT...IE...THE FARTHER N IN THE PANHANDLE THE SLOWER THE ONSET
OF PRECIP DUE TO THE DRY OUTFLOW.  STEADY FRONTAL RAIN REACHING
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND UP TO PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL MON
NIGHT...ANGOON TUE MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK...AND JUNEAU AND TO
NORTH TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG RANGE...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
WED WILL DISSIPATE THERE THROUGH THU. A WEAK 1009 MB HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE SOUTHERN YUKON DURING
THIS TIME AS A 995 MB LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL KEEP UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER ZONE 17 THAT WILL DIMINISH TO CHANCE
POPS ON THU AS THE LOW WEAKENS. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE ON WED WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW THAT THIS
WILL BRING WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG. SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHWEST PANHANDLE ON WED
THEN DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
WEAKENS. THE WIND FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT.

A ZONAL JET WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC BETWEEN
40N AND 50N LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD BUT
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT AND
PERSIST THERE THROUGH MON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK 994 MB WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THU NIGHT THEN TRACK SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. THE NEXT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC MAY TRACK FURTHER NORTH THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT AT THIS TIME AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK
BUT THE OVERALL MEAN TRACK AT THIS TIME TAKES IT AT LEAST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF.

THE FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI THROUGH
SAT. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE
ON FRI KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. WEAK OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE KEEPING POPS LOW.
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO ALL AREAS FRI NIGHT AND SAT BRINGING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN TO ALL ZONES. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH FOR SUN AND MON.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...ZONES 17..22..23..27..28
         WIND ADVISORIES..ZONES 18..19..20..21..24..25..26..29

MARINE...STORM WARNING...
           INSIDE WATERS PKZ022-036
           OUTSIDE WATERS PKZ041-042-043-051-052
      ...GALE WARNING...
           INSIDE WATERS PKZ013-021-032-033-034-035
           OUTSIDE WATERS PKZ052

JT/TAR