Hail in Wisconsin, May 9, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT STILL STRUGGLING TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WERE ON THE DECREASE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY INTO THE 60S. STILL THINK
CURRENT HIGHS WILL OCCUR AROUND 6 PM...THEREFORE CURRENT LOWS MAY
BE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWA...AND ALONG THE LAKE. OTHERWISE...RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE LANDSCAPE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO THE WEST...WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECASTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO ERUPT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND THEN TURN SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA.  WILL MENTION SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST
INDICATED THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS WITH SOME OF THE
PARAMETERS INDICATING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND END BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERNS ARE PRECIP
CHCS AND TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE RGN
MON NGT INTO TUES MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
MAY RESULT IN A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA OVER OUR SW COUNTIES BY TUES AFTERNOON.
TUES NGT AND WEDS SHOULD BE WARM...WITH GRB CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EDGE
THROUGH THE CWA ON THU AND THU NGT...BRINGING A GOOD CHC OF SHRA/TSRA.
GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PW VALUES
RISING TO 1 AND 1.5 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED
PROGS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT...SO WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO HANG ON TO A CHC OF RAIN FOR FRI...BUT WILL STICK
WITH THE CURRENT DRY FCST FOR NOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
RGN FRI NGT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NGT.

STAYED CLOSE TO EXTENDED TEMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-101700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THE MAIN COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB