A warm front was moving slowly north into Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms developed repeatedly north of the warm front, dropping up to 2 inches of rain in less than an hour in spots.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A warm front was moving slowly north into Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms developed repeatedly north of the warm front, dropping up to 2 inches of rain in less than an hour in spots. Isolated flooding and flash flooding resulted, with more widespread flooding in southern Gladwin County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 9, 10:56 AM EST, 3 hours 48 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1156 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004 .SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT IS HOLDING ALONG THE IN/OH/MI BORDER LATE THIS MORNING. SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN MKG AND MBL ATTM. MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING TOGETHER THUSFAR DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT FOCUS AND INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION. FURTHER UPSTREAM...BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IN STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM AND RAPIDLY INCREASING SBCAPES. ATMOSPHERE IS MORE POTENT DYNAMICALLY IN THIS REGION AS WELL...WITH 500 MB WINDS NEAR 50 KTS AND PLENTY OF SHEAR THRU THE COLUMN TO LEND TO SUSTAINABLE UPDRAFTS. MESOETA IS SUFFERING THE SAME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AS THE ETA AND GFS THIS MORNING...SHOWING A LARGE BULLSEYE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MN AT 12Z WHERE NO CONVECTION EXISTED. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON FEATURES DRIVING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOSER TO HOME...BOTH RUC AND MESOETA SUGGEST SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL ENCOUNTER NMRS SLOW-MOVING (15 MPH FORWARD MOTION) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE NRN EDGE OF WAA/ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ABOVE 1.0 INCH. SLOW-MOVING STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...AND ORIENTATION OF WARM FRONT AND 0-6 MEAN WINDS FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE SOME ECHO TRAINING ACROSS SRN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS. WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WARNING FOR GLADWIN COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...THRU THIS EVENING AT LEAST. GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL DATA...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT IS PUSHED THRU THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THETA E VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER...MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 455 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004 LONG TERM...WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT...MCS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING TO START THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THETA-E RIDGE AND PW/S OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL RACE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1200 AND 1600 J/KG BY 06Z (HIGHEST NW). MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTINUING AND SPEED SHEAR INCREASING COURTESY OF 40/45 KNOT 850 MB JET (OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT). SO WILL INSERT DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO ALL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 11K FEET. THETA-E RIDGE AND PW/S OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER SO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY MUCH OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MONDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA (AFTER LIKELY CLEARING EASTERN UPPER EARLY IN THE DAY). THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF GOOD SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPES OF AROUND 800 J/KG. THEREFORE SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES (HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 11K FEET). HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S EASTERN UPPER AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTHERN LOWER. MINOR TWEAKS TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SULLIVAN && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1235 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004 MIZ008-015>036-041-042-101100- ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA- CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU- MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO- PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD- 1235 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARRISVILLE TO TRAVERSE CITY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BETWEEN NOON AND 400 PM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALPENA TO TRAVERSE CITY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER AND HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE) SULLIVAN/EME
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:43 UTC.
4 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was over a foot deep on Mitchell Street in Cadillac.
The intersections of Falmouth and Thirteen Mile Roads, and Prosper and Eight Mile Roads, were inundated.
Several roads were washed out in Gladwin County, including Platt Lake Road (Sage Township) and McCullough Road (Grout Township). Several small creeks and streams reached or exceeded bankfull, including the Cedar River in the vicinity of Chappel Dam.
Old 76 was flooded in Sterling, and Kerr Road was washed out. Several culverts were heavily damaged.
Black Road near Prescott was under water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, May 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5394459, 5394460, 5396050, 5396049, 5397424.