Winter Storm and Flooding in Wisconsin, March 5, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

.UPDATE...A BIT DRIER AIR OVER NE HAS PRODUCED A BIT MORE SNOW AS PCPN
TYPE OVER EC AND C WI LATE THIS EVENING.  SNOW LINGERS OVER OSH AREAS
AND ATW AS WELL.  JUST RECIEVED A REPORT FRM OSH THAT THE SNOW HAS
SWITCHED OVER TO ALL RAIN AND THE OBSERVER PICKED UP 0.12 INCHES OF RAIN
IN LESS THAN HOUR.  WOULD EXPECT THIS RAIN/SNOW LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NWD NEXT FEW HOURS.

TH

DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NUMEROUS CONCERNS DURING THE FIRST
COUPLE OF FORECAST PERIODS. PCPN WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WI AT
21Z ACCORDING TO 88D TIME LAPSE AND SURFACE OBS. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW WERE TRANSPORTING PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM SVR AND/OR TOR WATCHES HAVE BEEN IN EFFECT ALL DAY.
THUNDER EVEN REACHED SOUTHWEST IA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ETA/NGM/GFS
ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COUPLED 300 MB JET STRUCTURE OVERNIGHT. MODELS FORECAST A 50 TO 65 KT
850 MB JET HEADED TOWARD A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. THUNDER...THOUGH MORE LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBILITY ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. ETA/NGM/GFS QPF TOTALS ARE QUITE HIGH AFTER 06Z. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGS SHOW 5400 M CONTOUR WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT
850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...ALONG BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SHOW COLDER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA APPEARS TO REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...SO HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE THERE. SOUTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARMER AIR AND MAY ONLY SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...SO FLOODING IS OF GREATER
CONCERN THERE. TIGHT 850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT AS WELL.
ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS FROM MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGHOUT. MODELS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA SAT NGT. BUMPED POPS UP TO HIGH CHC
CATEGORY. SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACRS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NOTHING IN COMPARISON TO TNGT/S SYSTEM.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY
WIZ020-021-030-031-073-074-

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY
WIZ035>037-045.

&&

TDH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
615 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-051215-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
615 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A MAJOR LATE-WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...A HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MERRILL TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
TO THE SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PULL
AWAYS FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY
SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
LIKELY NORTH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO
OCONTO LINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR TWO.
WITH SEVERAL CREEKS ALREADY AT OR JUST ABOVE BANKFULL...THE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE THESE CREEKS TO CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
WITH ADDITIONAL RIVER AND CREEKS APPROACHING OR RISING ABOVE BANKFUL
LEVELS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF THEM
COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. SPOTTERS
SHOULD REPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS...AND FLOODING THAT IS TAKING PLACE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ECKBERG/KURIMSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB