Flooding in Virginia, February 6 to 7, 2004

Name: Flooding in Virginia, February 6 to 7, 2004
Start: 2004-02-06T14:00
End: 2004-02-07T03:00
Location: Virginia

February 6 to 7, 2004 · NWS LWX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Heavy rainfall and melting snow produced some flooding across Northern Virginia. Radar estimates and rain gaugedata indicated that two to three inches of rain fell over this area.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.

Heavy rainfall and melting snow produced some flooding across Northern Virginia. Radar estimates and rain gaugedata indicated that two to three inches of rain fell over this area. Some roads were blocked after small streams came out of their banks. Goose Creek in Leesburg rose to 13.1 feet before cresting early on the 7th. Water approached Route 15 near Lime Kiln Road and Oatlands Mill Road. Other significant rises were noted on area rivers on the 7th and 8th.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 11:50 AM EST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 6, 11:50 AM EST, 2 hours 10 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1150 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY CONTINUE...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY
LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. 14Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM CLEVELAND SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

KIAD AND REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE +5 TO +8C TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800 TO 950MB LAYER...WITH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER VERTICAL VELOCITIES HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. COMBATING THIS PROCESS FURTHER EAST IS COLD AIR BEING
REINFORCED BY INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY
WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-5MB NEAR THE DELMARVA. INCREASINGLY
CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES THIS
PROCESS. THEREFORE AM GOING WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING REMAIN.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ALSO A
CONCERN IS BLOCKAGE OF DRAINAGE WAYS DUE TO SNOW AND
ICE...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ROGOWSKI

&&

.LWX...
DC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE DCZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES MDZ002>005.
     FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES
     MDZ006>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031.
     FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES
     VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES
     VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
     FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
MARINE...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 6, 12:05 PM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1205 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-071100-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-

.DAY ONE...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL EXCEPT LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO E-MAIL OR CALL IN PRECIPITATION REPORTS
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.

MANNING

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Frederick

When: February 6, 2:00 PM EST to February 7, 3:00 AM EST
Where: Frederick forecast zone
Reported by: EMERGENCY MANAGER
Coordinates: 39.195, -78.213 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Loudoun

When: February 6, 2:00 PM EST to February 7, 3:00 AM EST
Where: Loudoun forecast zone
Reported by: EMERGENCY MANAGER

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Virginia in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Virginia, February 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5386452, 5386453.