Flash Flood, Nelson
- When
- February 6, 3:45 PM EST to 7:45 PM EST
- Where
- Nelson County, Shipman
- Reported by
- EMERGENCY MANAGER
- Coordinates
- 37.787, -78.887 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Flash Flooding in Virginia, February 6, 2004
The combination of heavy rainfall and melting snow lead to flash flooding across the Central Shenandoah Valley and the Central Foothills. Radar estimates and rain gauge data indicated two to three inches of rain fell over this area.
Where it happened
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 5
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
The combination of heavy rainfall and melting snow lead to flash flooding across the Central Shenandoah Valley and the Central Foothills. Radar estimates and rain gauge data indicated two to three inches of rain fell over this area. Some small creeks and streams came out of their banks and covered nearby low lying fields and roadways.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 11:50 AM EST, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 6, 11:50 AM EST, 3 hours 55 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1150 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2004
...WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY CONTINUE...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY
LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. 14Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM CLEVELAND SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
KIAD AND REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE +5 TO +8C TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800 TO 950MB LAYER...WITH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HIGHER VERTICAL VELOCITIES HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. COMBATING THIS PROCESS FURTHER EAST IS COLD AIR BEING
REINFORCED BY INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY
WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-5MB NEAR THE DELMARVA. INCREASINGLY
CONVERGENT WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES THIS
PROCESS. THEREFORE AM GOING WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING REMAIN.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ALSO A
CONCERN IS BLOCKAGE OF DRAINAGE WAYS DUE TO SNOW AND
ICE...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ROGOWSKI
&&
.LWX...
DC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE DCZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES MDZ002>005.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES
MDZ006>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES
VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES
VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 4PM FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
MARINE...NONE.Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 6, 12:05 PM EST, 3 hours 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1205 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004 DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042- 050>057-WVZ048>055-071100- ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV- CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA- FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD- HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA- MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA- NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV- PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA- RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD- SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD- .DAY ONE... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL EXCEPT LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO E-MAIL OR CALL IN PRECIPITATION REPORTS THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. MANNING
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 149 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:42 UTC.
Event by event
5 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash Flood, Augusta
- When
- February 6, 3:45 PM EST to 7:45 PM EST
- Where
- Augusta County, Crimora
- Reported by
- EMERGENCY MANAGER
- Coordinates
- 38.165, -79.134 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Flash Flood, Highland
- When
- February 6, 3:45 PM EST to 7:45 PM EST
- Where
- Highland County, Southeast Portion
- Reported by
- EMERGENCY MANAGER
- Coordinates
- 38.362, -79.568 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Flash Flood, Staunton (C)
- When
- February 6, 3:45 PM EST to 7:45 PM EST
- Where
- Staunton (C) County, Staunton
- Reported by
- EMERGENCY MANAGER
- Coordinates
- 38.149, -79.060 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Flash Flood, Waynesboro (C)
- When
- February 6, 3:45 PM EST to 7:45 PM EST
- Where
- Waynesboro (C) County, Waynesboro
- Reported by
- EMERGENCY MANAGER
- Coordinates
- 38.069, -78.889 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
What these are
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
- Cold in Illinois, February 6, 2004
- Flash Flood in Alabama, February 6, 2004
- Flooding in Pennsylvania, February 6 to 7, 2004
- Winter Weather in New York, February 6, 2004
- Flooding in Ohio, February 6 to 7, 2004
- Winter Weather in Vermont, February 6, 2004
- Lightning Strike in Alabama, February 6, 2004
- Damaging Wind in Georgia, February 6, 2004
- Ice Storm in Pennsylvania, February 6, 2004
- Damaging Wind in Florida, February 6, 2004
- Winter Weather in New Hampshire, February 6 to 7, 2004
- Ice Storm in North Carolina, February 6, 2004
More
Every storm in Virginia in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, February 2004
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5386447, 5386448, 5386449, 5386450, 5386451.