Hail in Texas, October 3 to 4, 2004

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 3 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF WESTERN... SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS... BUT A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS DISPLACED SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY... WILL RAPIDLY RETURN
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...
AND THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AT MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING
BETWEEN AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK... MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS... THE FLOW OF MOIST AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA FROM KANSAS.  BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
HELP TO AID UPWARD MOTION ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...
WITH THE RESULT BEING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND PARTS
OF WESTERN... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED... WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER... LIFT WILL BE STRONG... AND A
FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL IN
THE STRONGEST CELLS OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY OCT 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...15 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PRIMARILY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
BUT PERHAPS ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS WELL... WHERE A
FEW RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING MAY REACH ONE TO TWO
INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK... WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME... INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER... WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY OCTOBER 4.

 MILLER