3 flash flood, 1 hail, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 3, 4:59 AM CST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 559 AM CDT SUN OCT 3 2004 .UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. WILL SEND UPDATED PFM AND ZFP PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE 20-30 PCT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATED 12Z-18Z WX/POP/QPF GRID GRAPHICS WILL ALSO BE SENT SHORTLY...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: .SHORT TERM... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MEAN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. A STRONG 80-90 KNOT UPPER JET WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER 70-80 KNOT JET MAX ENTERS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT APPEARS LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND WILL CARRY LOW ORDER POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO ISSUANCE. TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30-40 PCT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA TONIGHT...THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER BY LATER SHIFTS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN LARGE SCALE FLOODING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...SOMETHING ELSE THE DAY SHIFT WILL WANT TO LOOK INTO FURTHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY...BUT TRENDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY. .LONG TERM... SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL COME ABOUT OVER THE CONUS...AND WILL KEEP THE CWA IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ENTAIL CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY LOCATIONS AROUND THE CWA DO NOT NEED THE ADDITIONAL RAIN. WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWA TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED SPLIT FLOW WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL MIDWEEK...BEFORE FINALLY EJECTING EASTWARD BY WEEK/S END. FURTHER NORTH...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP EITHER IN THE NORTHERN CWA...OR JUST NORTH...ON MONDAY. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA SOMEWHAT TUESDAY...BUT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...PWAT/S ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE ONE INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. SINCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS GOOD...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CWA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 74 61 75 58 / 10 30 50 40 CARLSBAD NM 72 58 74 58 / 30 30 50 50 DRYDEN TX 77 63 80 62 / 10 20 30 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 76 62 78 60 / 20 30 50 30 GUADALUPE PASS TX 69 58 68 55 / 30 30 40 50 HOBBS NM 74 59 75 56 / 30 30 50 50 MARFA TX 76 52 75 50 / 20 30 30 30 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 74 61 75 59 / 10 30 50 40 ODESSA TX 74 61 75 60 / 20 30 50 40 WINK TX 78 62 79 59 / 20 30 50 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && 21/67
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 530 AM CDT SUN OCT 3 2004 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-032000- ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES- GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY- TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER- 530 AM CDT (430 AM MDT) SUN OCT 3 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED...AND POSSIBLY NUMEROUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT MAY UNFOLD OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 520 AM CDT SUN OCT 3 2004 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-032100- ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES- GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY- TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER- 520 AM CDT (420 AM MDT) SUN OCT 3 2004 ...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION... EAST ACROSS THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER... MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND LOCATIONS IN WEST TEXAS FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...PERMIAN BASIN...AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD WATCHES OR WARNINGS BE ISSUED IN YOUR AREA.
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 58 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:37 UTC.
3 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Local officials reported high water flowing over U.S. Highway 385 at the Gaines and Andrews County line.
Local officials reported high water flowing over U.S. Highway 385 at the Gaines and Andrews County line.
Flash flooding caused high water to flow out of cotton fields and across Texas State Highway 349 south of Patricia. The highway was covered by more than half a foot of flowing water in some spots.A round of strong convection during the morning hours of the 3rd resulted in very heavy rainfall and flash flooding over parts of the northern Permian Basin.
Isolated thunderstorms developed by early evening on the 3rd over the Davis Mountains. At least one thunderstorm became severe and produced quarter to golfball size hail over Fort Davis. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5427743, 5427744, 5427745, 5427746.