Heavy Snow in Texas, November 23 to 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG AWAITED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
REGION...CURRENTLY SPINNING ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER NEAR THE AZ/NM
STATE LINES.  VERY STRONG LEAD S/W HAS EJECTED NORTH OF THE MAIN
LOW...AND IS BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN TO THE TX/OK PNHDLS.  THIS
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NRN TX/OK PNHDLS BY SUNRISE AND
OTHER SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH APPROACH OF THE MAIN
LOW.  DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT BY RAIN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
CEILINGS CRASHING RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE IF FRONT DOESNT SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA.

HEADACHE THEN IS WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN OVER
TO ALL SNOW.  KEPT CURRENT WSW FOR NW 8 COUNTIES IN CWA...AND ADDED
NE 5 AND SW 6 FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SFC OBS STILL SHOW
COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND FRONT (LOCATED ACROSS THE OK PNHDL INTO NW TX
PNHDL AS OF 4 AM) ACROSS CNTRL KS/CO AND H850 TEMPS ALSO DONT DROP
BLO FREEZING UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODELS.  HOWEVER...
FEEL THAT CURRENT PRECIP WILL COOL ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH WE SHOULD START
TO SEE RAIN SNOW MIX BEFORE NOON ACROSS NW COUNTIES. RAIN/SNOW LINE
SHOULD THEN PROGRESS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST MAKING IT INTO THE AMA
AREA AFTER NOON. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NW TX PNHDL WITH
TEMPS CLOSEST TO FREEZING FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL (INCLUDING AMA) SHOULD SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BTW 6PM AND MIDNIGHT AS MAIN DYNAMICS OF H500 LOW
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTIVE BANDS
AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF THE H500 LOW COULD SHIFT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOW BY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE TX/OK
PNHDLS.

AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD GIVE THE
FAR SE TX PNHDL A SHOT OF SNOW AND PLACED THEM IN A SNOW ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT.  TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE SE BY THEN...
AND MAIN DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.  TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MODERATED QUITE
A BIT BY SNOWPACK...SO LEFT GRIDS ALONE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
SNOW FALLS.  NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY MODERATING CLOUD COVER.  AFTER BEING
WELL SEASONED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE
STARTING THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

DIDNT HAVE MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED AGAIN...BUT DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND.  ANOTHER FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN.  EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST...
AND FEEL THAT WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST.  WITH THIS IN MIND...BUMPED CHANCE POPS 12 HOURS BACK TO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE.  IF HISTORY (LAST 3 SYSTEMS) HOLDS TRUE...COULD SEE
ANOTHER WAA PATTERN SET UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WHICH MEANS TEMPS ARE A BIT TOO COOL. WITH ALL THE
UNCERTAINTIES...LEFT PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO ON GRIDS BEYOND
SATURDAY.

FCSTID = JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     42  30  39  28 / 100 100  10   0
BEAVER       39  27  39  26 / 100 100  10   0
BOISE CITY   33  26  34  25 /  80  60  10   0
BORGER       42  29  39  27 / 100 100  10   0
BOYS RANCH   40  29  39  27 / 100 100  10   0
CANYON       43  30  39  27 / 100 100  10   0
CLARENDON    49  33  42  28 / 100 100  10   0
DALHART      38  27  37  27 / 100  90  10   0
GUYMON       38  29  35  27 /  90  80  10   0
HEREFORD     42  27  37  27 / 100 100  10   0
LIPSCOMB     43  27  40  28 / 100 100  10   0
PAMPA        43  30  40  27 / 100 100  10   0
SHAMROCK     49  32  41  28 / 100 100  10   0
WELLINGTON   51  34  43  30 / 100 100  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM FOR TXZ001>020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ001>003-006>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
     FOR TXZ004>005-009>010-011>013-016>017.
     SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR TXZ014>015-018>020.
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM FOR OKZ001>003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OKZ001>002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
     FOR OKZ003.

&&

02/17

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