Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, November 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
830 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM HPC INDICATES COLD FRONT
ALIGNED ROUGHLY FROM DFW TO LRD. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...SO LIKELY
WILL SEE THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE BRO CWA (ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTY) WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT PRESENTLY CONFINED
TO THE CRP AND HGX CWA...WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS IN LA SALLE COUNTY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 35 KTS...AWAY FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT SUITE OF WEATHER FORECAST MODELS SUGGESTS
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE BRO CWA BETWEEN 06
AND 09 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH GFS AND ETA BOTH INDICATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AROUND THOSE TIMES.
HOWEVER...RUC MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION...SHOWING PROPAGATION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
THE BRO CWA. GRIDS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF CHANCE OF RAIN WITHIN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE REVISE THIS AND
ISSUE AN UPDATED ZFP WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO AND
APPROACHING ZAPATA COUNTY.
&&

.MARINE...AT 7PM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS AT 19KTS AND SEAS AT 7
FEET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITTING ROUGHLY ALONG I35 TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LAREDO AND IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGHER CHANCES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH A QUICK SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
POST FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY JUMP INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE.
CONDITIONS WILL CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND 3AM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY
NEARER TO THE COAST. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL JUMP UP TO 20KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS POST FRONT...WITH QUICKLY
CLEARING SKIES.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA GMZ130-150-155-170-175.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 85 62 76 51 / 40 10 00 00 00
BROWNSVILLE         64 76 49 69 54 / 40 10 00 00 00
HARLINGEN           63 76 48 69 53 / 40 10 00 00 00
MCALLEN             62 75 47 70 52 / 30 00 00 00 00
RIO GRANDE CITY     60 75 45 70 50 / 30 00 00 00 00
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  74 82 64 76 51 / 40 10 00 00 00
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...66
MARINE/AVIATION...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ248>257-241200-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
1245 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND SURF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MARTIN