Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, November 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
755 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...AFTER LOOKING AT THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING WITH THE STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 80H AND VEERING FLOW AT 85H...FIRST THOUGHTS WERE
TO AGREE WITH MODELS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMUM NEAR SAN ANGELO IS OVERCOMING THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER
THE AREA. 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. VERY IMPRESSIVE 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH
30 KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 60 KNOTS AT 50H. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
IS LYING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE COASTAL BEND WHICH WILL
KEEP THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT...MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 06Z. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO BUMP UP POPS AND INCLUDE SEVERE
THREAT. SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 2 AM.

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS.

&&

TMT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
512 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-241111-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
512 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM FOR GOLIAD
AND VICTORIA COUNTIES...AS THE AREA IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTH TEXAS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MOVING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF A
ENCINAL TO ROCKPORT LINE.  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTH WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

GW/TE