Scattered convection developed along a surface trough across the plains of southeast New Mexico south to the Davis Mountains during the afternoon of the 10th. Multicell complexes continually moved over the area of central Pecos County near Belding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Scattered convection developed along a surface trough across the plains of southeast New Mexico south to the Davis Mountains during the afternoon of the 10th. Multicell complexes continually moved over the area of central Pecos County near Belding. One such storm resulted in large hail. Flash flooding of local farm roads also resulted.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 1:07 PM CST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 207 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 .SHORT TERM... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN BEFORE NOON TODAY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A MOIST...UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. A CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE TRANS PECOS AREA. MORE LIFT COULD ALSO BE SEEN MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND AREA ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS ALSO ANALYZED AT THE SFC OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO AGAIN BE FAIRLY SLOW-MOVING TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. AND ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS WILL HAVE SLOW MOVEMENT... DO EXPECT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE AMPLE INSTABILITY...ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION HOWEVER...WITH WEAK SHEAR OVER THE AREA. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE LOWS TONIGHT. .LONG TERM... PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE CWA WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. BUT...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL AID IN MIXING THE DRYLINE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MUCAPES WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG...LI/S AROUND -4 C...AND H7 TO H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. SO A FEW STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. LEFT BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AS LLJ KICKS IN PROLONGING EXISTENCE OF ANY CONVECTION. THINK DRYLINE WILL PUSH TO THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AID MIXING OF DRYLINE EASTWARD. WILL NOT GO FOR THE FASTER ETA FRONTAL POSITION THURSDAY MORNING...SINCE IT APPEARS THERE WILL HAVE TO BE QUITE A BIT OF POST FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFFSET STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. BUT...THINK THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERNMOST ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THEREFORE...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THESE AREAS. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FRIDAY. HELD OFF ON INCREASING POPS ON FRIDAY THOUGH AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT MAY BE OVER OR EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL WARM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DRIER AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE WIND. WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS DRY AIR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA. TEMPS MAY BACK OFF A LITTLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DID NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT AS NOT CERTAIN OF QUALITY OF COOL AIR COMING DOWN...NOT TO MENTION IT/S RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY POPS AND TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE CHANGED A BIT DAYS 4 AND 5 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF COLD FRONT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN FLOW ALOFT. THANKS FOR COORD LUB...SJT. .FIRE WEATHER... LOW RH/S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL APPROACH...IF NOT EXCEED 20 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE ISOLATED NATURE AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF THESE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY. WOULD ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WILL MOISTEN FUELS TO WHERE FIRE DANGER MAY BE TOO LOW FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 64 86 66 91 / 20 20 20 10 CARLSBAD NM 61 93 61 91 / 20 10 0 0 DRYDEN TX 65 87 67 90 / 30 20 20 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 65 90 64 93 / 30 20 20 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 64 84 59 81 / 20 10 0 0 HOBBS NM 61 90 62 92 / 30 20 0 0 MARFA TX 54 84 52 85 / 20 20 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 65 86 65 92 / 30 20 20 10 ODESSA TX 65 86 65 91 / 30 20 20 0 WINK TX 66 97 66 99 / 30 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && 20/67
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 300 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-111000- ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES- GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY- TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER- 300 PM CDT (200 PM MDT) MON MAY 10 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS SINCE MOVEMENT WILL BE RATHER SLOW. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 151 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:18 UTC.
1 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Residents of Belding reported extended periods of pea size hail between the hours of 14:00 to 17:00 CST, as multiple strong thunderstorms trained over the community. One storm strengthened to severe levels and produced quarter size hail.
Prison officials reported high water caused by flash flooding over Farm to Market Road 2037 from one half mile south of Belding to the Lynbaugh Prison Unit northeast of Belding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5394272, 5394538.