Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 10, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

.SHORT TERM...
ONGOING FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS THE SPLNS REMAINS UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT. A WEAK SHTWV TROF MOVING ACRS NRN MX AND SW TX...
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...IS INCREASING MID-LVL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION. LOTS OF MESOSCALE FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH THIS EVE. AN MCV
FROM YSDYS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPINNING JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN
EASTERN NM TDY...NEARLY STATIONARY. A LARGER CIRCULATION LOOKS TO BE
MOVING NE FROM THE BIG BEND/TRANS-PECOS VALLEY. A DIFFUSE
DRYLINE...EMBEDDED IN SFC TROF...STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE SW TO NEAR CLOVIS WHERE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ALMOST
DISAPPEARS. TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DVLP ALONG THIS AXIS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVE. DESPITE THE VERY WEAK MID/UPR-LEVEL FLOW...POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SVR WITH WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVE WITH
THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE. 30 TO 40 KT SWRLY LLJ MAY MAINTAIN
CONVECTION PAST MIDN.  HAVE ADDED SLGT CHC TO GRIDS ACRS THE SRN AND
WRN COUNTIES FROM 6-12Z.

FOR TOMORROW GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WE WILL FINALLY BE SEEING
SOME FLOW ALOFT AS SHTWV TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN/
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE SW AT
H5..STILL AT A MODEST 20-30 KTS. WITH INCREASED SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SVR TSTMS TOMORROW. AGREE WITH SPCS
CURRENT DY2 PLACEMENT OF SLGT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CWA AS DRYLINE SHOULD NOT MOVE QUITE AS FAR EAST AS ETA SUGGESTS AND
MAY BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN.
EXTENT OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TOMORROW WILL BE MODULATED BY AMOUNT
OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS IN THE MORNING PLUS A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE LLJ...LOW
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON UNTIL NOON OFF THE CAPROCK.

.LONG TERM...
DRYLINE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH
A TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
GRADUALLY FLATTEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THE WAKE
OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MAY HELP TO SURGE THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE GFS INDICATES
FOR THURSDAY (ETA MAY BE TOO FAST). FOR NOW HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE GFS WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF CONVECTION PUSHING THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY THE DRYLINE MAY
ATTEMPT TO BECOME ACTIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH THE COOLEST DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       58  84  54  88 /  30  20  20  10
TULIA        60  83  58  87 /  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW    60  83  59  87 /  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND    60  85  56  88 /  30  20  20  10
LUBBOCK      61  85  60  87 /  30  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD   61  87  57  88 /  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS    64  86  64  86 /  20  20  20  30
SPUR         64  83  64  87 /  20  20  20  30
ASPERMONT    65  86  65  87 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

33/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

TXZ021>044-111630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE
DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS AND MAY DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND DURATION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.