Flash Flooding and High Wind in Tennessee, September 16 to 17, 2004

IVAN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
103 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WELL...IVAN IS POSITIONED 42 MILES W/NW OF MXF/MGM MOVING N AT
14 MPH. BHM HAS ISSUED A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS WITH WEAK ROTATIONAL
COUPLETS ALONG THE THE FEEDER BANDS OF NE THRU SE QUADS OF THE
HURRICANE. THE ONE BAND WE ARE MONITORING IS THE ONE NEAR ANNISTON
WHICH MAY AFFECT MARSHALL AND SRN DEKLAB COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE OF ALL IS IVANS FORWARD SPEED...WHICH WILL
LESSEN THE RAINFALL FROM YDA HERCULEAN RAINFALL S.  SO FAR RAINFALL
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND 1 INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SRN
CULLMAN AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY AL. WE JUST ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING FOR CULLMAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BANDS FROM BLOUNT
COUNTY TO CULLMAN COUNTY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH THE CRUX OF THE RAIN
FALLING ALONG AND EAST OF A MADISON...ERN MORGAN...MARSHALL AND
CULLMAN COUNTY LINE. WE EXPECT 1-2 INCHES EAST OF I65 THROUGH 3 PM...
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN SRN MARSHALL AND CULLMAN COUNTIES. BETWEEN 4
AND MIDNIGHT ANOTHER 2-4 INCH SWATH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE NE
QUAD OF TS IVAN AFFECTS THE NERN CWA THIS EVENING. THE NEW HPC
QPF GUIDANCE LOOKS.

THE STRONGEST WIND WE HAVE OBSERVED HAS BEEN AT THE CULLMAN AIRPORT
IN VINEMONT WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE GUSTING
TO AROUND 30. LOOKOUT MTN AND SAND MTN AND AREAS ON TOP OF LAKE
GUNTERSVILLE COULD SEE G50 AFTER 3 PM.  MANY TREES HAVE BEEN BLOWN
DOWN ACROSS THE SRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SERN COUNTIES.

THE MSAS ISOLLABARIC GRADIENT IS VERY PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTH OF
CULLMAN...SO THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE NOW...AND THE HIGH
WIND WARNING BEGGINGING AT 4 PM LOOKS PRUDENT.

NEXT AFD 230 PM...

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH THRU FRI MIDNIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY THRU TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

TN...FLOOD WATCH THRU FRI MIDNIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY THRU TONIGHT FOR LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES.
WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1126 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-162300-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1126 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

AS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES INLAND THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BRING WITH IT THE THREATS
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...HEAVY RAIN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONG RAIN BANDS AS THEY
PUSH NORTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE THREAT AREA
IS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA IN JACKSON...DEKALB...AND
MARSHALL COUNTIES.

...FLOODING...

AS THE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN REPEAT OVER THE AREA...FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
TENNESSEE.

...WINDS...
AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY...TO NORTHWEST
MADISON COUNTY...TO LYNCHBURG IN MOORE COUNTY TENNESSEE...WILL
EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST...SUSTAINED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30
TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK AND WILL BE MOVING
INTO TENNESSEE EARLY FRIDAY.

ANY LEFT OVER RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM WITH SEVERAL RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH WINDS GUST UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-161700-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
909 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

...SPECIAL HURRICANE IVAN STATEMENT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT MIDNIGHT. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND LINCOLN AND MOORE
COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE FOR
TODAY...WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 845 AM...THE EYE OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IVAN WAS ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY AND MOVING NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 16 MPH
AND WILL KEEP A NORTH NORTHEAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 965 MILLIBARS...OR 28.50 INCHES.

...TORNADOES...
BASED ON THE EXPECTED PATH OF IVAN...THE ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
FOR THIS MORNING EXPECT BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT FROM IVAN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO EIGHT
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
TENNESSEE.

WE ALSO EXPECT MANY CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS TO EXPERIENCE
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE PAINT ROCK RIVER
IN WOODVILLE IS PRIME LOCATION FOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE AREA. WE HAVE ALREADY
HAD SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN IN MARSHALL AND CULLMAN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. BY MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER TONIGHT WITH 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS FROM MONTE SANO
EASTWARD.

...CALLS TO ACTION...
HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION...AND MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW...SO THAT YOU CAN
BE READY TO ACT WHEN THE NEED ARISES. WITH THE COMBINED THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME POWER
OUTAGES.

EVERYONE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD
CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IVAN AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON TODAY.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HUN/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-162015-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

...SPECIAL HURRICANE IVAN STATEMENT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...OUTER RAINBANDS AND WINDS OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH WINDS AND RAIN GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON...

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

...TORNADO WATCH TIL 800PM FOR JACKSON...DEKALB AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT MIDNIGHT...

...WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND LINCOLN
AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY TENNESSEE FOR TODAY...WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA TONIGHT...

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1145 AM...THE EYE OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IVAN WAS ABOUT 50
MILES WEST OF MONTGOMERY AND MOVING NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 14
MPH.  IVAN WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY TRACK TODAY...AND THEN TURN
NORTH NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT WITH MOVEMENT AROUND 10 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 970 MILLIBARS...OR 28.64 INCHES.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF I65...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT EAST OF A LEWIS SMITH LAKE TO ARAB TO SCOTTSBORO TO WINCHESTER
LINE FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE AVERAGED AROUND HALF AN INCH WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF A PHIL CAMPBELL TO CULLMAN LINE.
EXPECT ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES TIL 3 PM...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM IVAN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY TENNESSEE.

WE EXPECT MANY CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS TO EXPERIENCE
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE PAINT ROCK RIVER
IN WOODVILLE IS PRIME LOCATION FOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT. IF YOU LIVE
CLOSE TO THE PAIN ROCK RIVER...HAVE A PLAN TO EVACUATE IF WATER
LEVELS RISE QUICKLY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE AREA. WE HAVE ALREADY
HAD SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN ACROSS LAWRENCE...MARSHALL...CULLMAN
AND DEKALB COUNTY AS WELL AS A FEW POWER OUTAGES.  BY MID
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND
45 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER TONIGHT WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS FROM MONTE SANO EASTWARD.

...CALLS TO ACTION...
HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION...AND MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW...SO THAT YOU CAN
BE READY TO ACT WHEN THE NEED ARISES. WITH THE COMBINED THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME POWER
OUTAGES.

EVERYONE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD
CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IVAN AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON TODAY.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HUN/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

JDG