Damaging Wind in Tennessee, May 16, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS TENNESSEE. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REFORM OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZING ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...THINK THAT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG RIDGE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS ONE WILL ALSO LIKELY
STALL-OUT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA, TN   63  80  63  83 /  40  40  30  30
KNOXVILLE, TN     62  80  62  82 /  40  40  30  30
BRISTOL, TN       59  79  60  82 /  40  40  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN     61  79  61  81 /  40  40  30  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MJB/DMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
530 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-171000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
530 AM EDT (430 AM CDT) SUN MAY 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT PRODUCING LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  ANY
OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY.  THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DH