Tornadoes and Flood in Kansas, May 16 to 17, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
336 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS OF 245 PM.
SO 20-30 POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PUSH A FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND INTO SW KS BY
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE.
THE ETA HAS BEEN MIXING THE MOISTURE OUT TOO MUCH IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATELY, SO INSTABILITY MAY BE HIGHER THAN THIS MODEL
SUGGESTS. STORMS SHOULD HELP PUSH THIS FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ETA/GFS SUGGEST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WE FOLLOWED THE
UKMET WHICH SHOWS THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM AMA TO END TO CNU BY
00Z WED, WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S WEST AND LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED.  HARDEST DECISION IS HOW
FAST THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL GET PUSHED BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.  WILL BANK ON THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTION OF SHOOTING THE
WARM FRONT NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL IN NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  THE UKMET TAKES THIS FRONT ORIGINALLY MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER MODELS, BUT SEEMS TO BOUNCE BACK TOO SLOWLY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THE ETA80 HAS A NOSE OF 100F IN MEADE
COUNTY FOR WED, BUT PLAN ON LOW 90S FOR NOW...WHICH IS THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST.  THE YO-YO ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY SEND CLOUDS AND FRONT BACK ACROSS CWA TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
RESULTANT LESS SUN.  THEN, WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND SET IN
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.  THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DAY TIME HEATING EACH
DAY, SEVERAL LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES, AND THUS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.  IF FRONT MEANDERS BACK
NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED THEN
AS WELL.  FOR NOW, WENT DRY OVER THE WEEKEND, THINKING MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA.

&&
DDC 60 87 57 78 / 20 30 50 30
GCK 56 86 56 73 / 30 20 30 30
EHA 57 93 55 78 / 20 00 20 30
LBL 57 92 58 81 / 20 00 30 30
HYS 60 84 54 77 / 30 20 40 30
P28 64 87 62 84 / 00 00 50 30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 7PM SUNDAY.
&&

FINCH/TSB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1055 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1055 AM CDT (955 AM MDT) SUN MAY 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL HOWL AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY DRIVING
IN THESE STRONG WINDS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST OF A LAKIN TO HUGOTON
LINE AFTER 4 PM CDT, AND WEST OF A DIGHTON TO MEADE LINE AFTER 7 PM
CDT.  THE OVERALL CHANCE AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS VERY LOW, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, BUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD PROMPT A CALL TO GATHER INFORMATION.

TSB