Flooding in South Carolina, September 9 to 10, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WITH REMNANTS OF FRANCES FINALLY OUT OF THE PICTURE...TODAY WILL BE
A WELL DESERVED RESPITE AND A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND CLEAN UP. ONLY A
FEW MINOR CONCERNS TO DEAL WITH. MODELS SHOW WEAK NW FLOW UPSLOPE
LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THERE. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MODELS SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE
IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS DRYING ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILD IN. GIVEN THE FRONT IN THE
AREA...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL CU
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARD A DEGREE
OR SO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO TAKE MORE SUN INTO ACCOUNT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. JUST A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE...MAINLY TO TEMPS BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AT
LOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY. THAT BEING THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TRIGGER WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE.

THE EVENTUAL FATE OF IVAN IS VERY MUCH A CONCERN FOR THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE MOST RECENT HPC PROJECTION...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST THAT WAS
COLLABORATED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...BUT IF THE GUIDANCE TRACK
CONTINUES...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO BE MADE.
&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD SHIELD BEGINNING TO BREAK OFF IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PUSHING EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AREAS FROM KGVL TO KAND HAVE BEEN
OBSERVING SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL REPORTS. CLEARING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SWING EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING KCLT BY
12Z ACCORDING TO THE ETA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH SUNRISE
AND FOG/LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL CERTAINLY LOOKS BETTER FOR PERIODS...
WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPOS. AFTER SUNRISE...MORNING CU WILL DEVELOP AND
SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 4-5 KFT. WINDS WILL VEER IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 10 KTS.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-101000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
554 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AT MANY FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CREST FORECASTS...SEE THE
FLOOD STATEMENTS ISSUED AT 437 AM THURSDAY AND AT 1040 PM WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT IS WITHIN
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT THE EVENTUAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
IVAN COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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