Flooding in Florida, September 9 to 30, 2004

Name: Flooding in Florida, September 9 to 30, 2004
Start: 2004-09-09T07:00
End: 2004-09-30T23:59
Location: Florida

September 9 to 30, 2004 · NWS MLB · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

Hurricane Frances produced 6 to 10 inches of heavy rain over much of the middle and upper St. Johns River Basin.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $4.8 million
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MLB wrote it up.

Hurricane Frances produced 6 to 10 inches of heavy rain over much of the middle and upper St. Johns River Basin. Beginning around September 9th, water levels began to reach flood stage on the middle basin mainly around Geneva, and Sanford. Levels continued to rise well above flood stage and began to fall slightly untill Hurricane Jeanne followed the same track across the state. Significant flooding followed with a record crest of 10.1 feet being reached at the Lake Harney Gage. In Volusia County many roads and dozens of homes were flooded, mainly in the Stone Island and surrounding communities. In Seminole County near Geneva, roads, nurseries and homes along Lake Harney were flooded. Water came over the seawall in Sanford and flooded numerous structures along the south shore of Lake Monroe. In Lake County...a few buildings and roads were flooded near Astor. River levels remained above flood stage through the remainder of the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 2:50 AM EST, 4 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 9, 2:50 AM EST, 4 hours 10 minutes before

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

...IVAN BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
RECENT PRESSURE EQUALS LOWEST OF HURRICANE ANDREW...

**NOTE TO NWS DOPPLER RADAR USERS...STORM TOTAL PRECIP WAS RESET AT
06 UTC (2 AM).

.DISCUSSION...

BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS 2.30) IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FL AND TROUGH AXIS ACROSS N FL.
RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL ADVECT IN SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR (CLIMO 1.8-1.9 PWATS) FROM THE EAST. SUCH DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WILL GO LIKELY ALL AREAS EXCEPT COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY
(45%) WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH IN FIRST.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CENTERS ON SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CAUSING FLOODING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAS
WINDS GOING MOSTLY CALM BETWEEN H85-H6 FOR NORTH AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS. SOME AREAS COULD EXCEED THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WHICH IN
MANY LOCATIONS IS LESS THAN 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. OTHERWISE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY WELL BEHAVED IN TERMS OF SEVERITY. THIS IS
BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM (5C AT H5) AND CONVECTION SHOULD
GET GOING EARLY IN SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND WORK OVER THE ATM
BEFORE IT IS REALLY PRIMED. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE MOVING INLAND AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES LURKING SO STORMS
THAT IMPINGE ON THOSE BOUNDARIES COULD GET ADDITIONAL LIFT AND
PRODUCE ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS (PULSE SEVERE).

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTN NEAR THE COAST SO WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO/GHWO.

FRI/SAT...RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND EASTERLY FLOW SETS IN. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS IVAN MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED
POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHEST VALUES INLAND DUE TO THE
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
MAINLY OVER INLAND SECTIONS FRI AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND
QUICKER. EXPECT MAINLY A DIURNAL RAINFALL PATTERN COASTAL VS
INTERIOR THROUGH SAT. COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD SEE MAINLY NIGHT AND
MORNING RAIN CHANCES FRI THROUGH SAT.

NEXT WEEK...
INCREASING EAST FLOW SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD GIVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS JUST ABOUT ANY TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
FORECAST ELEMENTS DICTATED BY THE TRACK OF IVAN WHICH IS FORECAST TO
RETAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WHILE BENDING NORTHWARD OVER CUBA
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ENTERING THE FL STRAITS OR SOUTHEAST GULF
LATE SUN. ALL PERSONS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM AND
DEVELOP A PLAN OF ACTION SHOULD IT THREATEN THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WL DOMINATE THE EASTERN US IN THE WAKE OF IVAN AND A DRIER FORECAST
IS INDICATED FOR THE AREA ASSUMING IVAN MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS AND SEAS SHOW AN SLOW INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND
WITH THE APPROACH OF IVAN AND HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AROUND
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  74  87  75  /  60  20  40  20
MCO  89  74  90  73  /  60  20  40  20
MLB  88  74  87  75  /  60  20  30  20
VRB  88  73  88  75  /  60  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 9, 5:08 AM EST, 1 hour 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
608 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
092000-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-
608 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE HIGH COVERAGE OF
STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS CONTAINING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH...ESPECIALLY WHERE EXISTING STORMS IMPINGE ON THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE OR OTHER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE
ERRATIC THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AT JUST 10 MPH OR LESS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY DUE TO MUCH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SLOWER MOVING STORMS THAN
RECENT DAYS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 TO 3 INCHES LOCALLY. THE GROUND
IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM 2 TROPICAL CYCLONES
IN THE LAST 4 WEEKS. ADDITIONAL AND PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS..AS WELL AS MANY
ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTS. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING AND MORE ERRATIC THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...
BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH. THE LOWEST THREAT FOR STRONG MARINE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST WHERE THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND MORE EASILY.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR
WATERSPOUTS ALONG DEVELOPING CLOUD LINES IN THE NEAR SHORE AND
INTRACOASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED BY HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CAUSE
RIVER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER NEAR LAKE HARNEY...SANFORD
AND DELAND...MINOR FLOODING IS NOW OCCURRING. MODERATE FLOODING IS
FORECASTED THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLOODING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN...CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...IS FORECAST TO CROSS CUBA THIS WEEKEND...AND AFFECT
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT
THE EXACT IMPACTS ON CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE AND WHEN THEY MIGHT
OCCUR. BUT AT THIS TIME...RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR INCREASING
WINDS AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

KELLY

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Seminole

When: September 9, 7:00 AM EST to September 30, 11:59 PM EST
Where: Seminole forecast zone
Property damage: $1.5 million
Reported by: OTHER FEDERAL AGENCY
Coordinates: 28.717, -81.236 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Volusia

When: September 9, 7:00 AM EST to September 30, 11:59 PM EST
Where: Volusia forecast zone
Property damage: $3.0 million
Reported by: OTHER FEDERAL AGENCY
Coordinates: 29.063, -81.149 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Lake

When: September 9, 7:00 AM EST to September 30, 11:59 PM EST
Where: Lake forecast zone
Property damage: $300,000
Reported by: OTHER FEDERAL AGENCY
Coordinates: 28.762, -81.711 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Florida in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Florida, September 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5424598, 5424599, 5424600.