Flash Flood in South Carolina, December 9 to 10, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
954 PM EST THU DEC 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WILL UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH #918 UNTIL 3 AM FOR PORTIONS OF NE GA
AND THE UPSTATE. WARM FRONT DEPICTED ON LAPS RUNS FROM ANDERSON
TO LAURENS TO NEWBERRY ATTM. VERY IMPRESSIVE AIR IS BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KGRD SURGING TO 67 OVER 64. CAPES ESTIMATED
BY LAPS RANGE FROM 300-1400 J/KG WILL LLVL HELICITIES AROUND 300
M2/S2 AND SWEAT >400. AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY OVERTAKES THE CAD
AREA THE TOR/SVR THREAT WILL MOVE NORTH WITH IT. IN ADDITION...
STORMS HAVE TRAINED ACROSS THE REGION ALONG AND WEST OF I-85. PW
OVER 1.2 AND K-INDEX OVER 35 WILL EXPECT SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN...SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 628 PM EST THU DEC 9 2004

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS ADVANCED AS FAR
NORTH AS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE IN SITU WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH...THE BL WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND STABLE OVERNIGHT.
ATTM PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS. MESOETA SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN LESS
THAN A MB OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH 12Z...WILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THE LLVLS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOIST
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...SFC WINDS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP THE BL MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NC COUNTIES EAST
OF THE MTNS AND THE EXTREME NRN TIER OF THE SC UPSTATE THROUGH 8 AM
TO HIGHLIGHT. NEW 18Z MAV...DOES ADVERTISE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
DENSE FOG AT MOST STATIONS...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. WILL ADD PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH TO THE GRIDS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LEAVE IT BE. IF NEEDED
WILL COMPLETE ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST LATER THIS EVENING.

THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 240 PM EST THU DEC 9 2004
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...TORNADO WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ026-028-029 UNTIL 3 AM EST.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-035-037-038-054>057-
     066>072-082 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
SC...TORNADO WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ010>014-019 UNTIL 3 AM EST.
  ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ008-009-014 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
     MORNING.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EST THU DEC 9 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-101100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
310 PM EST THU DEC 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN AS WELL. HEAVY RAIN
EARLIER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH WATER CONDITIONS IN A
FEW SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.  AS COLD AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY.  THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS THE MOISTURE FEED DECREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.
THE LAST LOCATIONS TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE TENNESSEE
BORDER LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL...SEE CAESPSGSP.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 PM EST THU DEC 9 2004

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010>012-019-100900-
ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GREENWOOD SC-HART GA-
LAURENS SC-
751 PM EST THU DEC 9 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE. WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM OF WIND DAMAGE
OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE WIND
SHEAR. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS KEY TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT REGION OF SOUTH
CAROLINA.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM ELBERTON TO ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD BY LATE TONIGHT. THUS...A
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY...INTO THE AREA FROM HARTWELL TO ANDERSON
AND LAURENS...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION OR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

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