1 heavy rain, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 11:40 AM AST, 10 minutes earlier.
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1140 AM AST SAT MAY 15 2004 .UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE SO FAR BEEN BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS AREAS FROM NAGUABO WEST TO THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND LATEST 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREAS INDICATE AND REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT IN CURRENT AND EXPECTED WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT PRESENT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN./RAM .DISCUSSION... NWS DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO FROM FAJARDO...WEST THROUGH ARECIBO. EXPECT SOME OF THIS RAINFALL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INLAND TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTS AND SLOPES THIS MORNING. WITH SATURATED SOILS...ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO OR MORE INCHES WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH 600 PM. GFS MODEL INDICATED THAT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL REGION AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THETA-E FIELD SHOWS A RIDGE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING WEST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE BULLS EYE OF THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MID LEVEL RISING MOTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY INCREASING CONSIDERABLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO...MODELS SUGGEST SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BY LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING CONSIDERABLY THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL JET IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THESE THREE INGREDIENTS ARE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD EVENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. EVEN WORST...SOILS ACROSS MOST PARTS OF PUERTO RICO ARE SATURATED... INCREASING EVEN MORE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD EVENT. THEREFORE...INCREASED WEATHER...POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY INCLUDING TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FLOODING IN THE FORECAST. && .MARINE... NEAR NORMAL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH SEAS MAINLY FROM 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS. HOWEVER...CHOPPY SEAS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND CHOPPY SEAS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SUNDAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISH OR MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. /ROCHE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 82 75 83 75 / 70 100 100 100 STT 81 74 82 74 / 50 100 100 100 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...FFA PRZ001>006-012-013. VI...FFA VIZ001-002. && ROCHE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 610 AM AST SAT MAY 15 2004 PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-161000- 610 AM AST SAT MAY 15 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO. .TODAY...THE LOCAL AIRMASS STILL VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN IN SMALL QUANTITIES MAY BE SIGNIFICANT SINCE SOILS ARE VERY SATURATED ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF AND EAST SECTIONS. RIVERS AND STREAMS LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH AND THESE WILL FLOOD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THEIR BASINS. LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY OVER STEEP TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN FLOODING. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ROUGH AND CHOPPY ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP TOGETHER WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK NOW SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE THE DAY WITH MORE SEVERE WEATHER. THIS INCLUDES VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. WEATHER THIS DAY MAY BECOME SEVERE. LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY OVER STEEP TERRAIN. A MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS....HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-161000- 610 AM AST SAT MAY 15 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. .TODAY...CONTINUOUS MODERATE TO HEAVY PASSING SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT SUNDAY WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SEVERE. OVER THE WATERS THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU. RIVERA
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1144 AM AST SAT MAY 15 2004
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1139 AM FLOOD GUAYNABO 18.39N 66.11W
05/15/2004 GUAYNABO PR NWS EMPLOYEE
UP TO A FOOT OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS. HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES.
&&
RGZ1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A home was reported flooded in the San Francisco urbanization in Rio Piedras. Flooding was also reported in Cupey. Small stream Josefina was reported out of its banks, flooding the Diego Avenue in Puerto Nuevo. River Rio Piedras was reported 2 feet below flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, May 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5398798.