Lightning Strike in Pennsylvania, May 15, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM NW PA HAS RAIN BEHIND IT
BUT CURRENT OBS AND RADAR INDICATE TSTMS DVLPG AHEAD OF IT. SPS HAS
ALSO PUT THE NRN PORTIONS OF EPA/NRN NJ INTO SLGT RISK SVR. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...IT SHOULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONT
DVLPG TSTMS AND SINCE IT WILL BE AFTER TEMPS HAVE REACHED FULL
POTENTIAL...SVR THREAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MOST OF EPA TNGT AND THEN SLOWS DOWN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH PHL METRO AREA SUN AM AND WAITS UNTIL LATE SUN TO MAKE
IT THROUGH SRN DE. THIS MEANS TIMING THE PCPN DIFFERENTLY ACROSS THE
ZONES. NRN AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT TNGT...SRN AREAS JUST CHC.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TSTMS ARE DROPPED FROM THE FCST BUT I
KEEP SHWRS IN UNTIL THE DRY AIR ARRIVES. NRN ZONES DRY BY
AFTN...CENTRAL ZONES AROUND MIDDAY AND SRN ZONES STAY UNDER THE
THREAT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THROUGH SUN AFTN WITH A CHC CONTG INTO SRN
DEL EARLY SUN NGT.

MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CLOUDS RETURN MON NIGHT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AS THE WARMER AIR
MOVES BACK TO THE NE. HOWEVER...WHEN THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES THIS
TIME...IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS CURRENTLY SINCE THE WARMER
AIR WILL BE MODIFIED FROM THE OLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH COMBINED
WITH COOLER AIR MODIFYING IT FROM THE S.

THEN TUE THROUGH FRI...I KEPT IN PSBL SHWRS AND TSTMS ALL AREAS.
SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH BUT SINCE TIMING THIS FAR OUT
IS NOT RELIABLE...A GENERIC CHC LOOKED APPROPRIATE. EVEN THOUGH PCPN
WILL BE MENTIONED FOR 4 STAIGHT DAYS...A GOOD BIT OF THE TIME SHOULD
BE DRY.

DRY AIR SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD SW FLOW IS STRONGEST ON THE BEACH BUT STILL UNDER 20KT THEN
THEN DIMINISHES MOVING OFFHSORE. NO FLAGS THIS GO ROUND EXCEPT SOME
TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS LATER THIS EVENING BUT THAT TO BE
REFLECTED IN NEXT CWF RELEASE AROUND 230 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF REFLECTING TSTM UPGRADE VIA SPC SWO INVOF OF ABE. RANDOM CELLS
OVER SE PA 18Z MOVING NE 22KT MAY REMAIN N OF ILG AND W OF PNE OVER
NEXT HOUR THEN APCH SVRL APRTS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MPO 56 71 52 74 / 80 40 10 20
ABE 59 76 55 79 / 70 40 10 10
RDG 60 76 56 79 / 70 40 10 10
PHL 65 77 60 80 / 50 50 10 10
12N 57 74 54 77 / 70 40 10 10
SMQ 61 77 57 80 / 60 40 10 10
TTN 63 77 58 80 / 50 40 10 10
MIV 60 76 57 78 / 50 50 10 10
N55 60 71 57 73 / 50 50 20 10
ACY 60 75 57 77 / 50 50 10 10
ILG 62 77 58 80 / 50 50 10 10
DOV 61 75 58 77 / 50 50 10 10
GED 62 75 58 78 / 50 50 30 10
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE/OCEAN...NONE.
MARINE/DEL BAY...NONE.
&&

STAUBER/EBERWINE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-151200-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
510 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE...AND NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.