Puerto Rico, 2004

Flood in Puerto Rico, March 28, 2004

March 28, 2004 · NWS SJU · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 28, 6:45 AM AST, 9 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 28, 6:45 AM AST, 9 hours 32 minutes before
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
645 AM AST SUN MAR 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW NELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT WAS
DECIDEDLY MORE NNE PAST 12 HOURS AND STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AS
ANOTHER VORT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE MOVED SW THROUGH THE AREA. LARGE
VORT SWINGING THROUGH SW PORTION OF W ATLC TROUGH AND INTO LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING IS AIDING TO KEEP ELONGATED LLVL TROUGHING ALONG
ABOUT 55W NEAR STATIONARY. THE SRN TAIL OF THIS TROUGH HAD BEEN
FORECAST BY MODELS PAST FEW DAYS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO
LOCAL AREA...BUT INSTEAD PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED IN TACT
OVERNIGHT AND OUR WIND FORECASTS WERE WAY UNDERDONE PER STLT DERIVED
WINDS. LLVL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR LESSENING LLVL FORCING. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LLVL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTERMITTENTLY
AFFECTING NORTHERN P.R. AND THE USVI. 100 KT JET DYNAMICS AND
APPROACHING VORT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR TSTORMS
THROUGH MON. OVERNIGHT TOPS MAXED OUT AT 27-30K FT DUE TO EXTREME
SHEAR 20-35K FT LAYER AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA NEXT 18 HOURS TO DECREASE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS TO
GENERALLY SAFE LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS STILL BEING DOMINATED BY MODERATE PERIOD NE WIND
SWELL. COASTAL OBS HERE IN SAN JUAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTED
WWIII AGAIN OVERFORECAST THIS EVENT...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH WILL
NEVER BE KNOW DUE TO NON EXISTENCE OF DATA PLATFORMS. SWELL
DIRECTIONS HAS GRADUALLY VEERED A BIT MORE NE PAST 24 HOURS AND NOT
HITTING THE NW CORNER OF P.R. AS STRONGLY (RINCON) AND HAVE THUS
DROPPED THAT AREA AND VIEQUES FROM HSA. CFW DROPPED ALSO THIS
MORNING AS SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
PULSE OF ENE SWELL FROM E ATLANTIC STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
ENTIRE REGION MON-WED WITH LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL. HSA MAY BE
NEEDED N COAST OF P.R. BUT NOT LIKELY ANYWHERE ELSE. WIND WILL DROP
OFF QUICKLY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PERSISTENT RAINS OF PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY MAKING SUFFICIENT
ACCUMULATION IN NORTH COASTAL SOILS FOR SOME SATURATION TO NOW BE
OCCURRING. LOCAL RIVERS RESPONDED YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANT RISES...AND A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR N CENTRAL
RIVERS. THESE RIVERS NOW PEAKING OR ON THE DECLINE...BUT WILL
REBOUND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
NEAR ONSHORE FLOW OF PAST DAYS...AND SURGING SWELL ENERGY ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO RETARDATION OF OUTFLOW INTO THE OCEAN OF THESE
RIVERS. MAX 12 HOUR PRECIP VALUES CONTINUE TO BE ESTIMATED BY 88D AT
2.5-3.5 INCHES PAST 36 HOURS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  72  84  73 /  40  60  40  30
STT  80  72  83  73 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA AMZ710-720 AND PARTS OF AMZ730-740. HSA N COASTS OF
     PRZ001-002-005-008-012.
VI...SCA AMZ710-720 AND PARTS OF AMZ730. HSA N COASTS OF
     VIZ001-002.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 28, 6:30 AM AST, 9 hours 47 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST SUN MAR 28 2004

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-291000-
630 AM AST SUN MAR 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...OF MODERATE
INTENSITY...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS STILL A RISK OF OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES. THIS COULD THEREFORE LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
STREETS...SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTS DUE TO LARGE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS.
SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ARE LIKELY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST MARINE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
MARINE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WET AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER.
THEREFORE...OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL AFFECT OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEA/SURF CONDITIONS.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-291000-
630 AM AST SUN MAR 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...OF MODERATE
INTENSITY...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...
MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT TIMES WHICH MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...GUTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTS DUE TO LARGE NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELLS. SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ARE LIKELY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
MARINE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WET AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER.
THEREFORE...OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL AFFECT OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEA/SURF CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Eastern Interior

When
March 28, 4:17 PM AST
Where
Eastern Interior forecast zone
Reported by
EMERGENCY MANAGER

Urban flooding was reported at Barrio Cañaboncito in the municipality of Caguas.

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, March 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5389371.