Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, July 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE EVENING IN HAZE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
WERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND
MIXING OF BLYR SHOULD RETURN CONDITIONS TO VFR BY LATE MONDAY AM.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TILL 6 PM FOR JUST WARREN COUNTY IN NW
MTNS (AND OTHER PARTS OF W PA) AT THIS POINT.  COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS OHIO WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. ALSO QUITE A BIT ON INSTABILITY TO
TAP INTO ACROSS W PA...SO THESE TSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN AERIAL COVERAGE AND STRENGTHEN AS WE REACH MAX HEATING.  IF MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED STORM REACHES SEVERE LIMITS TO THE WEST...A NEW
SEVERE TSTORM BOX MAY BE REQUIRED FURTHER EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA
FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR OUR
CWA/S EASTERN BORDER WHERE TSTORMS ARE FEW.  SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S (COMPARED TO NEAR 70 FOR W AND
CENTRAL PA) AND LESS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL WORK TO KEEP
TSTORMS SUPPRESSED IN THIS AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT...CUTTING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR TOMORROW AS INSTABILITY DECREASES BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY KICK OF A FEW HIT AND MISS STORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY DURING THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN THEN WEAKENS BY MIDWEEK AS WEAK SYSTEM/COOL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BRINGING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR
WED/THU. THEN HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AND WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG...WITH A SERIES OF DRY DAYS AND A SUMMERTIME WARMUP.
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ZONE PAZ004 UNTIL 6 PM EDT.
&&

AVIATION...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-050806-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
407 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER WESTERN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

PAZ004-042200-
WARREN PA-
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

WARREN.

A COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

PAZ004-042115-
WARREN-
444 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 14 MILES WEST OF WARREN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
YOUNGSVILLE...LOTTSVILLE...CLARENDON AROUND 450 PM...WARREN...BEAR
LAKE AROUND 455 PM...SUGAR GROVE...RUSSELL AROUND 500 PM AND GERMANY
AROUND 510 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.