Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...

BIG QUESTION IS TRACK OF MCS CURRENTLY WORKING ACRS NEB/NW KS. LTST
ETA SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN NORMAL WITH PCPN...AND PROGS IT TO
MOVE ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA DURG THE NGT. THE ETA SOLUTION IS VRY
DEPENDENT ON ORIENTATION OF H85 WNDS...WHICH VEERS DURG THE NGT AND
THIS KEEPS WARM AIR ADVCTN FEEDING STORMS ALG EDGE OF CAP.  WL HAVE
TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON PROFILERS DURG THE NGT.  DECENT CAPE AND DRY
AIR ALF ON KTOP RAOB SUG MAIN THREAT WL BE WND.  FAR SWRN SXNS MAY
ESCAPE PCPN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO CUT GRIDS THAT CLOSE.  WL RUN
HIEST POPS IN THE N WHERE CAP SHUD BE WEAKEST AND LOWEST IN S/SW
WHERE TIMING/CAP AND TRACK SUG PCPN LEAST LKLY.  MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/DEWPTS FOR TRENDS.  INCRD CLDS OVNGT AS WELL.   GRIDS/PRODUCTS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED/POSTED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

305 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECITON LATE TNGT, AND SUN THRU TUE.

TNGT:
MOSTLY CLR SKIES WILL DOMINATE MOST OF CEN/SRN KS OVERNIGHT BUT 85OH
WAA/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS WAA WILL BE CENTERED INTO CEN NEB KEEPING
CEN KS DRY. THETA-E GRADIENT ALSO CENTERED IN THIS AREA, SO EXPECT
AN MCS TO DVLP SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CEN NEB AND PROPAGATE
SEWRD AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES. COULD SEE THIS MCS SNEEK INTO
CEN KS OVERNIGHT, BUT THICKNESS VALUES KEEP IT NE OF THE AREA. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME SCT TSRA IN CEN KS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS AREA
ALSO, SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THIS AREA EARLY SUN.

SUN-SUN NIGHT:
MORNING MCS MOVES ACROSS MAINLY NERN KS INTO NWRN MO DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH M-ETA HINTING AT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
COMPLEX DRIFTING SW INTO CEN KS.  POTENT UPR LEVEL S/WV MOVES OUT OF
THE SW US, HELPING DVLP A SFC LOW IN SW KS WITH A TRAILING DRY LINE
EXPECTED TO SURGE NE TOWARDS SRN KS BY THE AFTN HOURS. MOD TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS ALL OF CEN/SRN KS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR THESE BOUNDARIES TO INTERACT WITH, BUT MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL KEEP TSRA AT BAY UNTIL MAX HEATING LATE IN THE
AFTN/ EARLY EVE. SO WILL KEEP THE MAIN PART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
DRY.

EXPECT TSRA (SOME SVR) TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY THE EARLY EVENING,
WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND SOME SUPERCELLS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARIES WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO. CAP MAY KEEP TSRA FROM BECOMING
TOO WIDESPREAD UNTIL LLJ KICKS IN LATE SUN NIGHT, BUT ONCE IT DOES,
EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN MCS COMPLEX WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT LATE AS IT MOVE ACROSS SERN
KS.

MON-TUE:
WEAK SFC LOW REMAINS OVER SWRN KS ON MON WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER CEN/SRN KS.  DRY LINE ALSO RESETS ITSELF JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL CAPPING IS ALSO LESS, SO WITH BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FOR CONVERGENCE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AROUND EXPECT MORE
SHRA/TSRA BY MON AFTN INTO MON EVE.

EXPECT THESE TSRA TO ALSO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS COMPLEX ACROSS CEN KS
AS MON NIGHT CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT APROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SO EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. WILL GO WITH HEALTHY CHC POPS FOR MON NIGHT
AND DEMINISH POPS AS TUE GOES ALONG AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IS A LITTLE
IFFY, AS GFS CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS ACROSS SRN KS, SO WILL
KEEP LOW POPS ALONG KS/OK BORDER WITH THIS IN MIND. WILL ALSO KEEP
MAX TEMPS BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND FROPA.

WED-THU:
SFC RIDGE AND UPR RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS RETURNING TO THE AREA AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
NW FLOW INITIALLY WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO ON WED WITH MORE
SUMMERLIKE VALUES FOR THU.

FRI-SAT:
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRI WITH PRECIP CHC INTITIALLY
STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.  A WEAK SFC TROF MOVES DOWN OUT OF
NEB BY LATE FRI, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA CHC IN CEN KS BY FRI
EVE.  WILL INSERT A SMALL POP FOR THIS CHC.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  92  70  91 /  10  30  30  20
HUTCHINSON      68  92  69  91 /  20  30  40  20
NEWTON          68  91  69  91 /  20  30  40  20
ELDORADO        68  91  69  91 /  20  30  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  92  70  92 /  10  30  30  20
RUSSELL         66  90  67  88 /  30  30  40  20
GREAT BEND      66  91  67  89 /  30  30  40  20
SALINA          68  92  69  91 /  30  30  40  20
MCPHERSON       68  91  69  91 /  30  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  90  70  91 /  10  30  30  20
CHANUTE         67  89  68  89 /  20  30  40  20
IOLA            67  89  68  89 /  20  30  40  20
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

22/KETCHAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
124 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
124 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

THROUGH DAYBREAK, THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND
INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
MAY OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CREATED FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CONVECTION LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER,
WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO LEAD
TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ITS TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. BUT THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, BUT MAY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/KETCHAM/HOWERTON