Hail in North Dakota, June 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATES THIS EVENING TO FINE TUNE PRECIP CHANCES
AND REMOVE SEVERE MENTION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL ND. A VERY
ILL-DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT SLICING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ND HAS
PROVIDED AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY (LESS THAN 20 MPH) WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SMALL HAIL MAY FALL FROM A FEW
STORMS BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE DWINDLING WITH
THE SETTING SUN. A VORTICITY MAXIMA IN EASTERN MT WILL BEGIN TO KICK
THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW EAST WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING TO
SPREAD EAST. THE PRECIP THREAT WILL END WEST OF THE VALLEY BY
MID-MORNING WITH AREAS IN MINNESOTA BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT BY NOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

NOTE...EFFECTIVE 1200 UTC JUNE 8TH THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER
/PID/ FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY WFO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS WILL CHANGE FROM BISAFDFAR TO BISAFDFGF. THE WMO
CODE WILL REMAIN FXUS63 KFGF.

JCA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
633 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041533-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
633 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF MINNESOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT.  THE MAIN THREAT IS OVER THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM...MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 2 AM.  IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF OVER AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD CAUSE
FLOODING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE
TONIGHT.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE SOUTH
AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER TONIGHT...AND INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
MORNING.  SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL TRANSPORT MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SUMMER TIME WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVADES THE REGION.  LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY BY EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.  THEN DRY
ON SUNDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY GIVING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF A VALLEY CITY TO
FARGO TO ROSEAU LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

RIDDLE