Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
309 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AIRMASS OVER THE PANHANDLES
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS THROUGH 05Z. SEVERE TSTMS
NEAR DALHART WILL ENCOUNTER SURFACED BASED CAPE PLUME NEAR 3000 J/KG
ALONG WITH LI/S AROUND MINUS 5 DEGREES AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST AT NEAR
20 MPH. WW 396 WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z.

DIURNAL TYPE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SATURDAY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL BE ASSISTED/ENHANCED BY WEAK
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AS MINOR SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
HAVE RETAINED POPS.

LATER PERIODS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST BRISK NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW WILL DEVELOP A WEST COAST TROF AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     64  90  62  88 /  30  30  30  20
BEAVER       65  89  64  86 /  40  20  20  20
BOISE CITY   56  88  59  87 /  40  20  20  20
BORGER       65  92  64  90 /  40  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH   63  96  63  88 /  40  30  30  20
CANYON       64  92  62  89 /  30  30  30  20
CLARENDON    67  94  66  90 /  30  30  30  20
DALHART      61  92  61  88 /  40  30  30  20
GUYMON       63  90  61  87 /  40  20  20  20
HEREFORD     64  94  62  89 /  30  30  30  20
LIPSCOMB     66  90  67  85 /  40  20  20  20
PAMPA        64  91  63  90 /  40  20  20  20
SHAMROCK     67  91  67  90 /  30  30  30  20
WELLINGTON   69  91  67  92 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

02/13

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-051100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM UTAH. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.

CAUTION IS ALSO ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

ANDRADE