Damaging Wind in North Carolina, November 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

TORNADO WATCH #901 UNTIL 5 PM.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UPSTATE...ENTERING NC BY 3 PM.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAPS GIVING A LARGE
AREA OF 200-500 J/KG. 0-3 KM HELICITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY WITHIN
THE 150-200 M2/S2 RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN THREAT AND LITTLE SHOULD CHANGE BEFORE THE
LINE EXITS THE CWA. AFTER SQUALL PASSES...STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 0Z. MESOETA AND RUC SHOW THE SFC COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH THE FA BY 9Z TONIGHT. WILL END CHC EAST OF THE MTNS BY
6Z...WILL MAINTAIN WESTERN UPSLOPE SH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING MORNING...ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CAA AND THE
DEPTH OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE NC/TN LINE. H85 TEMPS
OVER THE TN BORDER FALL TO -6 TO -7 BY 18Z. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
IN WITH THE SHRA BY SUNRISE OVER 4K FT. BY MID-MORNING...PRECIP
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SN ABOVE 4K FT AND MIX WITH THE RAIN AS
LOW AS 2500 FT. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE TOP OF
THE MOISTURE ALMOST REACHES THE OPTIMAL SNOW GROWTH TEMPS BETWEEN
12-15Z OVER THE NRN MTNS. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW DECENT SHSN
THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF ACCUM OF SNOW...WILL CARRY POPS AS HIGH
AS 30%.

TEMPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN MTNS TOMORROW WILL SEE
LITTLE TO NO WARMING WITH THE ONGOING CAA. IN FACT...THE FA WILL BE
MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY. HARD
FREEZE EXPECTED FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE FA. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF PROGGED TO APPROACH SATURDAY MORNING...
WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC LOW AND BEST
UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD STAY JUST NW OF OUR AREA...LIMITING THE EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS SAT
AFTERNOON/EVE. RATHER SUBDUED WEATHER FOR SUN PM THRU MON NITE.
SUBTLE S/W RIPPLES THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
CLOSED LOW. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TUE THROUGH WED. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES PER ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE BAND CROSSING UPSTATE SC THIS AFTERNOON...HEADED FOR
KCLT. GSTS 25 TO 30 KTS QUITE COMMON ALONG THIS LINE...WITH
POTENTIAL TO 50KTS AS EVIDENCED BY DOWNED TREES. BEHIND THIS BAND
STRATIFORM RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
VEERING WIND BEHIND TROUGH NOW IN GULF STATES SHOULD END PRECIP THIS
EVENING. ACTUAL FROPA NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH WIND COMING
AROUND TO WNW...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING TO AROUND 050 FT.
WIND VEERS FURTHER MID MORNING WED AND BECOMES QUITE GUSTY...WITH
LOW CLOUD BECOMING SCATTERED IN DOWNSLOPE LEE OF MTS. KAVL TO REMAIN
BKN THROUGH 18Z IN UP VALLEY NW FLOW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...TORNADO WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 5 PM
     EST.
NC...NONE.
SC...TORNADO WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 5 PM EST.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EST WED NOV 24 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-251145-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
645 AM EST WED NOV 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT...SPSGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

LINGERING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES
THANKSGIVING MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY HOLIDAY
IS ON TAP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SE WALHALLA          34.67N 82.94W
11/24/2004                   OCONEE             SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON CAMPBELL BRIDGE RD IN THE FRIENDSHIP
            COMMUNITY.

&&

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT AIRY              34.52N 83.50W
11/24/2004                   HABERSHAM          GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ON WELCOME HOME RD AND ON DOOLEY RD IN NORTH
            PART OF COUNTY.

&&

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WATERLOO                34.35N 82.06W
11/24/2004                   LAURENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HWY 221 NEAR WATERLOO. LARGE LIMBS DOWN WITH
            STRONG WINDS REPORTED POUNDING AGAINST THE BUILDINGS IN
            CROSS HILL.

&&

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     TORNADO          3 NW CARLISLE           34.62N 81.50W
11/24/2004                   UNION              SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS DIRECTOR REPORTED A TORNADO
            BETWEEN CARLISLE AND SANTUCK ALONG HWY 215. MULTIPLE
            TREES DOWN ACROSS THE HIGHWAY.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NW CARLISLE           34.65N 81.54W
11/24/2004                   UNION              SC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LARGE LIMB DOWN AT COOP OBSERVERS HOUSE IN SANTUCK.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EST WED NOV 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E CARLISLE            34.59N 81.39W
11/24/2004                   CHESTER            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 215 AND HWY 72 AREA IN SW CORNER OF
            CHESTER COUNTY.

&&

RWH