Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.UPDATE...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACRS
THE WESTERN CWFA WITHIN AREA OF LIFT ALONG FRONT SIDE OF STALLED
MID-LVL S/WV AND DEEP SELY FLOW...ALL IN CONCERT WITH 12Z OBSERVED
PWATS OF AROUND 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. INCOMING 12Z ETA DOES
DIMINISH AMOUNT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND HOPEFULLY
THIS WILL KEEP RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE MANAGEABLE ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE THREAT RANGE. THIS MORNINGS GRID UPDATE WILL AT LEAST
CONSIST OF AN INCREASE IN POPS AND LOWERING OF MAXES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SW.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENINGS LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS COVERS MUCH OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
UPSTATE. PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHOW A CONSISTENT WEAKENING TREND...AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT LATER TODAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H8 TROUGH WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...IT WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER 140% OR
MORE OF NORMAL) THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THEREFORE...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN OR NEAR THE CWFA OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...THE
POSITION OF THE H8 TROUGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING NORTH (MUCH AS IT DID
YESTERDAY) POINTS TO THE NECESSITY FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
GA...THE UPSTATE... AND THE SOUTHERN NC MNTNS AND FOOTHILLS. ONCE
AGAIN...THE LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST IN THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT...
WHICH WILL BE FARTHEST AWAY FROM SOURCES OF LIFT AND WHERE MOISTURE
IS LESS PLENTIFUL.

WILL CARRY HIGH POPS INTO THE EVENING...THEN BACK OFF TO A TOKEN
CHANCE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST...BUT THE WEAK VORT BEGINS TO PICK UP
SPEED IN RESPONSE TO A SW TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. AS THE
H8 TROUGH MOVES ALONG WITH IT...WE WILL LOSE OUR UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING THEM BACK  OVERNIGHT.

DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING VORT COULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS AND
WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW...BUT CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PAST THURSDAY.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-090945-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
542 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE SEE
CAESPSGSP FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR EACH
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ON MOST DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-082000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1050 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

...ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT...

WIDESPREAD...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS...WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.

AS THE DAY WEARS ON...SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AND WITH
THE ONGOING HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY SHOWER OR
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THEN REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE ESCARPMENT FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.