Damaging Wind and Heavy Rain in North Carolina, June 30, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
911 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPDATING TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL 1ST PERIOD FOR THE SRN AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...NE GA AND MOST OF THE UPSTATE. COMBINATION OF WEAK
DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH H5 SHORT WAVE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...HIGH
LAYER RH VALUES AND INCREASING SE LLVL FLOW (ALBEIT ONLY AROUND 10
KTS) IS RESULTING IN QUITE A RESPONSE WITH WIDESPREAD RA/SHRA AND
FEW TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWFA. PCPN WL
HAVE A LITTLE TROUBLE WORKING INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND NRN FOOTHILLS
AND HAVE LEFT THE POPS A LITTLE OVER THERE. HOWEVER...EXPECT GOOD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THERE INTO THE AFTN AS WELL ONCE THERE IS A
LITTLE HEATING. WL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY IN THE
GRIDS. NOT SURE IF IT WL COME OUT CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
TEXT...BUT SUNSHINE WL CERTAINLY BE LIMITED TDA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS CWA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS AREA. H85 UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON-EVE AS WELL WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SW...SO LIKELY SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL LOOKS GOOD. MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP
THU BUT MODELS BRING WEAK TROF IN THE AFTN-EVE SO WITH LOW LEVELS
STAYING MOIST WILL STICK WITH GOING CHANCE POPS. DEEPER MOISTURE
FCST TO RETURN FRI WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT SO NO CHANGE TO
SOLID CHANCE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
LITTLE CHANGE REST OF WEEK WITH SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED
IN FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXTENDED
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTN-EVE POPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
BL HAS BEEN ABLE TO MOISTEN SIGNIFICANTLY DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOW
DWPTS REACHED TUE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS
WILL EXPECT ALL TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS TO DEVELOP PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG AFTER 9Z. KAVL IS ALREADY THE EXCEPTION WITH OBS POINTING
OUT VIS DOWN TO 1SM AND CEILING AT 500FT. 5Z FLP VS. 0Z MAV/FWC
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SALIENT DIFFERENCES IN FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
AT KAVL THIS MORNING. WILL SIDE WITH THE FLP AND BRING AVL DOWN TO
THE VLIFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING AND A STEADY IMPROVEMENT AFTER
SUNRISE. BY 18Z...UPSLOPE FLOW...POOLING CAPES...AND APPROACHING
VORT MAX WILL RESULT IN SH/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FA. WILL HANDLE
WITH VCSH FM18-19 WITH TEMPO THROUGH 0Z FOR SHOWERS/CB. AFTER
0Z...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF -RA AT TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING...BUT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR OR BETTER PER MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-010900-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
516 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REDEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREAS...COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RB