6 marine hail, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 10:35 AM EST, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1135 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004 .SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BOUNDARY WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING MOVING EASTWARD...ALONG WITH THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. APX WSR-88D INDICATES A FEW REMAINING RETURNS FROM THE MORNING UPPER PENINSULA SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON WITH NO OTHER RETURNS IN THE CWA. MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCES CUMULUS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE OVERDONE IN RESPECT TO MOISTURE. ETA DEWPOINTS FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR SAULT STE MARIE ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL REALISTICALLY BE IN THE LOW 60S AT BEST. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING SAULT STE MARIE TO SURFACE PARAMETERS OF 76 F TEMPERATURE AND 61 F DEWPOINT STILL PRODUCES A LI OF -4.5 AND A CAPE OF 1710 J/KG AT 21Z. WITH THAT IN MIND THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALLER AREA ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE WHERE AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE. UPDATE CURRENTLY OUT UPDATED PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND MODIFIED WINDS SLIGHTLY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004 .LONG TERM... SHORT WAVE IN MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO TONIGHT AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A BAND OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...RIBBON OF THETA-E AS WELL AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER THIS EVENING AND TAP INTO EXISTING INSTABILITY. 50 TO 60 KNOT MID LEVEL WINDS (500 MB) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KTS AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL TO JUST UNDER 10K FEET BY LATE EVENING ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES TO THE SOUTH IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...THETA-E MOISTURE DECREASES AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THEN TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE AT NIGHT. THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN THE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS IF ANYTHING AT ALL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SO CHANCE SHOWERS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUFFICE. MEANWHILE...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE (CU SCHEME INDICATES MODERATE AMOUNTS OF CU). 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE PLUS 10 TO 11 RANGE SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FRIDAY...UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH JUST A BIT OF CU EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE PLUS 10 TO PLUS 12 RANGE SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. DID MAKE A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAY END UP IN BETWEEN TROUGHS ON SATURDAY (ONE TO OUR NORTH AND ONE TO OUR SOUTH LEAVING US IN A NULL ZONE)...I COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SNEAK INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA WHICH LINES UP WITH OFFICES TO THE WEST. THEN...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WITH INCREASING SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE NORTH. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && MJP/SULLIVAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 523 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004 MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345- LHZ345>349-011100- ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA- CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU- MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO- PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR 523 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND CONTAIN HAIL OF AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 PM THIS EVENING AND 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING (INDEPENDENCE DAY). .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE) SULLIVAN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
302 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004
MIZ008-015>019-010200-
CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-EMMET-MACKINAC-PRESQUE ISLE-
302 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2004
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
CHEBOYGAN...PRESQUE ISLE...CHARLEVOIX AND EMMET
IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC
THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND HAIL LARGER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE
WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.
JPB6 marine hail. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5409684, 5409682, 5409683, 5409685, 5409686, 5409687.