Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 12, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...

WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF AS SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING. WEDGE
FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FA ATTM...ENCOUNTERING CAPES NEAR 3000
J/KG. STRONG STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA
UNTIL CAD AIRMASS DOMINATES LATE THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FUEL SH AND ISO TS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUN.
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S SUN...LIMITING
THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...BROAD S FLOW AND FLATTENING RIDGE WILL
ALLOW SCT TO LIKELY COVERAGE TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. WITH THE HIGH FURTHER SE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FA MON AND TUE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE A TROPICAL FEATURE MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS AND MILD TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...

RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF EARLY WED THEN SLOWLY MOVES E. ZONAL FLOW
FOLLOWS THROUGH WEEK AS BROAD UPPER TROF DROPS S OVER E CANADA. LOW
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH FRI IN NE FLOW BEHIND H85 LOW AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND FILLS. BY FRI NIGHT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER CWA AND SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN OVER
MTNS...THEN ISOLD CONVECTION SAT AFTN...VCNTY SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED
ACROSS CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  70  79  68  84 /  50  50  30  50
AND  72  82  68  84 /  50  50  30  50
CLT  67  81  69  85 /  20  30  30  50
HKY  66  78  66  81 /  30  30  30  50
AVL  65  76  64  79 /  50  50  40  50
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

NED/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
557 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-130956-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
557 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BE QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY...ENHANCING HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...UNDER THE PRODUCT
HEADER CAESPSGSP...FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY IN UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALHALLA                34.77N 83.06W
06/12/2004                   OCONEE             SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY COMMS CENTER IS OPERATING FROM BASEMENT AS
            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN WALHALLA.

0238 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOCCOA                  34.58N 83.32W
06/12/2004                   STEPHENS           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY COMMS CENTER REPORTS TWO TREES DOWN ON OLD CHURCH
            ROAD AND PENNY SIZED HAIL IN TOCCOA.

&&

DEO