Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kansas, June 12 to 13, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORNADOES, ALONG WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE/DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER EASTERN KANSAS, POSING A
LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. TORNADO WATCHES IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF
RUSSELL, TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
DRYLINE IS BULGING WEST OF WICHITA AND HUTCHINSON, INCREASING
CONVERGENCE. CUMULUS FIELD STRETCHES JUST EAST OF THIS DRYLINE,
INDICATIVE OF DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
STRATO CU WILL LIKELY BE INITIATION POINT FOR EXPLOSIVE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 4 PM ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR. SUPERCELLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. 0-6 KM SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS/VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS
(MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 5000 J/KG) AND DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR,
ISOLATED TORNADOES, WITH A FEW LARGE TORNADOES, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SFC TEMPS ARE REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE I-135
CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN CIN VALUES BELOW -10 J/KG FOR MEAN MIXED
LAYER PARCELS. ADDITIONALLY, SPEED SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION.

THINKING AN EXPANSIVE MCS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT, AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES, POSING A HEAVY
RAIN/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SERIOUSLY
CONTEMPLATED A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HOWEVER, THINKING BULK OF
MCS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF A EUREKA TO SEDAN
LINE. IF AREA GETS NAILED TONIGHT, MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FLOOD WATCH,
ESPECIALLY IF MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

DRYLINE HANGS OUT IN VICINITY OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO A COUPLE MORE SEVERE EPISODES MAY BE IN THE PICTURE BOTH
DAYS. CAP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY, BUT 20 TO 30 POPS
SEEM PRUDENT. ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE A POSSIBILITY ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED, AS MOST OF OUR ATTENTION
AT THIS TIME IS FOCUSED ON THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHTS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER.

GFS IS STILL SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY
MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, WILL WAIT FOR A BIT MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
TO INSERT POPS. ALL MODELS ARE COOLING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
LATE WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TRENDED
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR NOW.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         71  89  71  89 /  50  30  30  20
HUTCHINSON      69  89  68  90 /  40  30  20  20
NEWTON          71  89  70  89 /  50  30  30  20
ELDORADO        71  88  71  89 /  50  30  40  20
STROTHER FIELD  72  89  71  89 /  50  30  30  20
RUSSELL         65  90  64  90 /  20  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      65  90  65  90 /  20  20  20  20
SALINA          67  89  67  89 /  50  30  30  20
MCPHERSON       68  89  68  89 /  40  30  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  87  71  88 /  50  40  40  20
CHANUTE         72  86  71  88 /  50  40  40  20
IOLA            72  86  71  87 /  50  40  40  20
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

21/KLEINSASSER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO
BASEBALL SIZE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH, AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN FACT, GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONVERGE INTO A BIG COMPLEX OVER
EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THINGS WILL SET
UP. PLEASE STAY TUNED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE
NEEDED OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JAKUB/CARUSO/KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1036 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     HAIL             PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/12/2004  1.75 INCH        MARION             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAS